Upset Brief · CO-08 · Manny Rutinel (D) vs. Gabe Evans (R), incumbent

Rutinel can win. The math closes using 58 percent of what history allows.

50%
odds today
62%
odds with the plan
5,012
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 2
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 8252901058 (Adams County)
    Starting line Rutinel +42. 7.2% split their ticket. About 259 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +73
  2. 02
    Precinct 8213501013 (Adams County)
    Starting line Rutinel +31. 3.1% split their ticket. About 655 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +72
  3. 03
    Precinct 8213201124 (Adams County)
    Starting line Rutinel +35. 6.3% split their ticket. About 412 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +70
  4. 04
    Precinct 8213501257 (Adams County)
    Starting line Rutinel +54. 4.9% split their ticket. About 226 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +69
  5. 05
    Precinct 8252901033 (Adams County)
    Starting line Rutinel +26. 4.5% split their ticket. About 351 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +59
  6. 06
    Precinct 8213501001 (Adams County)
    Starting line Rutinel +48. 2.4% split their ticket. About 318 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +57

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    5,160 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Evans today.
    +3,001
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 33,747 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rutinel's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,433
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rutinel's way.
    +829
What has to be true
  1. Rutinel wins 29 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Evans.
  2. In Precinct 8213501013 (Adams County) and Precinct 8213501001 (Adams County), 20 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 58 percent of what recent Colorado results show is possible.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    377 precincts, R² 0.971, 52 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -24,089 to 34,449 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Rutinel $601,232 cash on hand; Evans $3,880,463.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,076 households, 48,229 dials, about 2,527 live conversations: an estimated $6,374 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,374 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Colorado races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.