Colorado · U.S. House · District 8 · November 3, 2026

How Manny Rutinel wins.

A true toss-up between Rutinel and Evans: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all call it a toss-up, and no independent public poll sets a starting line. In a tied race, the plan aims for a 2-point cushion: 5,012 net votes, most of them in Precinct 8252901058 (Adams County), Precinct 8213501013 (Adams County) and Precinct 8213201124 (Adams County).

5,012

net votes between Rutinel and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 2.

Tied

our starting line: a toss-up (the raters; no independent poll)

In short

One-page brief ›All Colorado races ranked ›

Rutinel can win. The math closes using 58 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%

Odds with the plan62%

Net votes to find5,012

WherePrecinct 8252901058 (Adams County), Precinct 8213501013 (Adams County), Precinct 8213201124 (Adams County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Evans +0.0. Manny Rutinel needs 5,012 net votes. Odds 50% today, 62% with the plan.

The number

125,309 votes.

That is half of the 250,616 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Rutinel stands today, and what is missing:

121,318 Manny Rutinel baseline

121,318 Gabe Evans baseline

Starting line: a tie (Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all call it a toss-up, and no independent public poll sets a starting line), applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. In a tied race the plan aims for a 2-point cushion. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

50% today. 62% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Rutinel wins in

62%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

50%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves58%

The plan on this page sits at 58%. Median outcome at this setting: Rutinel by 5,420.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,001

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,160

Who. 5,160 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Evans today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Rutinel needs to win 29 percent of the ones now leaning Evans.

Mobilize

1,433

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 33,747

Who. At least 33,747 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rutinel's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

829

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,071

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rutinel's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 5,263 net votes against a gap of 5,012. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 13% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 8252901058 (Adams County)mobilize
Starting line Rutinel +42. 7.2% split their ticket. About 259 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+73
02
Precinct 8213501013 (Adams County)mobilize
Starting line Rutinel +31. 3.1% split their ticket. About 655 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+72
03
Precinct 8213201124 (Adams County)mobilize
Starting line Rutinel +35. 6.3% split their ticket. About 412 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+70
04
Precinct 8213501257 (Adams County)mobilize
Starting line Rutinel +54. 4.9% split their ticket. About 226 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+69
05
Precinct 8252901033 (Adams County)mobilize
Starting line Rutinel +26. 4.5% split their ticket. About 351 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+59
06
Precinct 8213501001 (Adams County)mobilize
Starting line Rutinel +48. 2.4% split their ticket. About 318 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+57
07
Precinct 8135062138 (Weld County)mobilize
Starting line Rutinel +31. 1.4% split their ticket. About 490 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+53
08
Precinct 8213501020 (Adams County)mobilize
Starting line Rutinel +34. 4.2% split their ticket. About 294 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+50
09
Precinct 8243101029 (Adams County)mobilize
Starting line Rutinel +34. 3.7% split their ticket. About 410 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+48
10
Precinct 8213501270 (Adams County)mobilize
Starting line Rutinel +42. 5.2% split their ticket. About 190 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+48
11
Precinct 8213501005 (Adams County)mobilize
Starting line Rutinel +36. 2.0% split their ticket. About 343 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+47
12
Precinct 8243301165 (Adams County)persuade
Starting line Evans +5. 6.0% split their ticket.
+46

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 8252901058 (Adams County) carries the most.

Precinct 8252901058 (Adams County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 73. It sits at Rutinel +42 on our starting line, and 7.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 8213501013 (Adams County) is a turnout race.

Rutinel's side leads Precinct 8213501013 (Adams County) by about 31 points on our starting line, and it cast about 655 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 62 votes there.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Evans had $3.88 million in cash on hand to Rutinel's $601K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Rutinel's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 377
Slope: 1.017
R²: 0.971
Residual SD: 3.7 pts
Crossover precincts: 52

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Rutinel's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 2.

Now to October 1
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Rutinel, with Evans, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 2 to 11
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,001 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 12 to 25
Bank the ballots
Every active Colorado voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 33,747 of them live where Rutinel is favored. Ballots must be received by the county clerk by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. After October 26, return ballots to a drop box or voting center rather than by mail.
November 3
Election day
Voter service and polling centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. Colorado offers same-day registration through 7 p.m. on Election Day, with ID. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 0.7 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 1.8 points; Bennet carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 4.4 points.

Rutinel wins 29 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Evans.
In Precinct 8213501013 (Adams County) and Precinct 8213501001 (Adams County), 20 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 58 percent of what recent Colorado results show is possible.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

2,527 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 48,229 dials to 16,076 households, before the last ballot is cast.

16K

households on the target list

48K

dials across three attempts

2,527

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,374 at our published rates: 16,076 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Manny Rutinel (D)

Attorney and former state representative for House District 32 (2023 to 2026) from Commerce City who worked as an economist for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and has served as CEO of Climate Refarm; he holds degrees from the University of Florida, Johns Hopkins University and Yale Law School.

Cash on hand $601,232 and $4,336,988 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Gabe Evans (R)

U.S. representative since 2025 and former state representative for House District 48 (2023 to 2025); a former Army and Colorado National Guard Black Hawk pilot who served in Operation Enduring Freedom and a retired Arvada Police Department lieutenant, he holds a government degree from Patrick Henry College and lives on a ranch in Fort Lupton.

Cash on hand $3,880,463 and $5,393,673 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Dave Wood (L)

Westminster resident, former musician and computer programmer, and longtime Libertarian who was the party's 2000 candidate for state House District 34 (CPR News).

Campaign site ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Evans +0.0. Manny Rutinel needs 5,012 net votes. Odds 50% today, 62% with the plan.

Questions

Can Manny Rutinel win Colorado's 8th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Manny Rutinel needs 5,012 net votes, and recent Colorado results show about 9,050 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 58 percent of that.

Where are the votes Manny Rutinel needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 8252901058 (Adams County), Precinct 8213501013 (Adams County), Precinct 8213201124 (Adams County), Precinct 8213501257 (Adams County), Precinct 8252901033 (Adams County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Manny Rutinel need to persuade?

About 1,500 voters who lean Gabe Evans today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 29 percent of the 5,160 persuadable voters leaning Gabe Evans.

When does early voting start in Colorado in 2026?

Colorado votes by mail: every active voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, 2026, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Register by October 26 to be mailed a ballot; same-day registration continues through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Colorado Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.