Upset Brief · Colorado U.S. Senate · Mark Baisley (R) vs. John Hickenlooper (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.4-point national wave.

2%
odds today
7%
odds with the plan
350,035
net votes to find
John Hickenlooper won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    El Paso County
    Starting line Baisley +9. 7,659 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 98,383 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +12,509
  2. 02
    Jefferson County
    Starting line Hickenlooper +20. 7,518 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 63,804 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +8,564
  3. 03
    Douglas County
    Starting line Baisley +7. 5,743 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 54,851 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +7,611
  4. 04
    Arapahoe County
    Starting line Hickenlooper +22. 6,375 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 70,142 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +7,463
  5. 05
    Weld County
    Starting line Baisley +20. 2,464 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 51,697 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +6,276
  6. 06
    Denver County
    Starting line Hickenlooper +61. 5,823 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 81,590 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +6,223

The top 12 counties carry 81% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    59,620 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hickenlooper today.
    +59,620
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 162,002 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Baisley's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +15,393
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Baisley's way.
    +10,182

Plus a national shift of 10.4 points of margin (264,839 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Baisley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hickenlooper.
  2. In the precincts Baisley's side carries in El Paso County and Weld County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 10.4 points toward Baisley's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    3,160 precincts, R² 0.976, 628 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -556,833 to 30,408 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Baisley $50,021 cash on hand; Hickenlooper $2,083,870.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    214,131 households, 642,393 dials, about 33,661 live conversations: an estimated $58,865 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $58,865 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Colorado races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.