Colorado · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Mark Baisley.

Hickenlooper starts 13.8 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 85,128 net votes toward Baisley, a 3.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 10.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Baisley the one standing if one comes.

350,023

net votes between Baisley and a win

days to election day. Mail voting opens October 2.

13.8 pts

Hickenlooper lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Colorado races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.4-point national wave.

Odds today2%

Odds with the plan7%

Net votes to find350,023

WhereEl Paso County, Jefferson County, Douglas County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Hickenlooper +13.8. Mark Baisley needs 350,023 net votes. Odds 2% today, 7% with the plan.

The number

1,272,687 votes.

That is half of the 2,545,372 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Baisley stands today, and what is missing:

1,064,826 Mark Baisley baseline

1,414,849 John Hickenlooper baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this state (President, U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

2% today. 7% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Baisley wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Baisley short by 264,097.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

60K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 59,628

Who. 59,628 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Hickenlooper today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Baisley needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Hickenlooper.

Mobilize

15K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 161,602

Who. At least 161,602 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Baisley's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

10K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 29,097

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Baisley's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 85,128 net votes against a gap of 350,023. Still 264,895 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 10.4 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 81% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
El Paso Countypersuade
Starting line Baisley +9. 7,662 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 98,266 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+12,440
02
Jefferson Countypersuade
Starting line Hickenlooper +20. 7,518 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 63,804 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+8,564
03
Douglas Countypersuade
Starting line Baisley +7. 5,743 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 54,851 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,611
04
Arapahoe Countypersuade
Starting line Hickenlooper +22. 6,375 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 70,142 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+7,463
05
Weld Countymobilize
Starting line Baisley +20. 2,464 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 51,697 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+6,276
06
Denver Countypersuade
Starting line Hickenlooper +61. 5,823 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 81,590 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+6,223
07
Larimer Countypersuade
Starting line Hickenlooper +18. 4,430 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 48,644 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,421
08
Adams Countypersuade
Starting line Hickenlooper +14. 3,309 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 67,109 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+4,467
09
Boulder Countypersuade
Starting line Hickenlooper +57. 3,741 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 31,678 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+4,011
10
Mesa Countypersuade
Starting line Baisley +20. 1,614 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 18,502 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,247
11
Pueblo Countypersuade
Starting line Hickenlooper +3. 1,549 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 18,016 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,315
12
Fremont Countymobilize
Starting line Baisley +32. 488 persuadable voters leaning Hickenlooper; 5,596 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,222

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

El Paso County holds the biggest share of the plan.

El Paso County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 12,440. It sits at Baisley +9 on our starting line.

Weld County is a turnout race.

In the precincts Baisley's side carries in Weld County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 3,034 votes in this plan.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Hickenlooper had $2.08 million in cash on hand to Baisley's $50K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 85,128 net votes. The gap is 350,023. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 3.3 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Baisley's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 3,160
Slope: 0.994
R²: 0.976
Residual SD: 5.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 628

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Baisley's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 2.

Now to October 1
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Baisley, with Hickenlooper, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 2 to 11
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 59,628 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 12 to 25
Bank the ballots
Every active Colorado voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 26 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 161,602 of them live where Baisley is favored. Ballots must be received by the county clerk by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. After October 26, return ballots to a drop box or voting center rather than by mail.
November 3
Election day
Voter service and polling centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day. Colorado offers same-day registration through 7 p.m. on Election Day, with ID. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 11.0 points; Bennet carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 14.6 points; Polis carried the 2022 governor's race by 19.3 points.

Baisley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Hickenlooper.
In the precincts Baisley's side carries in El Paso County and Weld County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 10.4 points toward Baisley's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

33,620 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 641,608 dials to 213,869 households, before the last ballot is cast.

214K

households on the target list

642K

dials across three attempts

34K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $58,793 at our published rates: 213,869 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Mark Baisley (R)

State senator for Colorado Senate District 4 since 2023 after representing House District 39 (Douglas and Teller counties) from 2019 to 2023. Born in Hastings, Minnesota, he moved to Colorado in 1989 for an aerospace job with what is now Lockheed Martin, holds a BS from Columbia College (Missouri) and is president of engineering software firm Slipglass, Inc.

Cash on hand $50,021 and $138,147 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

John Hickenlooper (D)

U.S. senator from Colorado since 2021, previously governor of Colorado (2011 to 2019) and mayor of Denver (2003 to 2011). A Narberth, Pennsylvania native with a BA in English and a master's in geology from Wesleyan University, he worked as a petroleum geologist before co-founding Denver's Wynkoop Brewing Company in 1988.

Cash on hand $2,083,870 and $8,119,380 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Bob Chew (For)

Boulder resident and former Navy nuclear submarine officer who co-founded an engineering and technical services company with his wife in the 1990s, grew it from four employees to 700 and sold it to its employees through an ESOP in 2008.

Cash on hand $1,044,358 and $1,270,007 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Christopher Baum (AV)

Denver-based retired U.S. Navy commander, former small-business owner and computer network administrator (CPR News).

Also on the ballot

Blake Huber (L)

Election reform advocate and former state party chair who has spent more than 30 years in management overseeing apartment communities, a small business, a motel and network engineering teams; he served in the Kansas National Guard and the U.S. Navy Reserve (CPR News).

Also on the ballot

Adam Withrow (U)

Walsenburg resident who has worked as a ranch hand, certified nursing assistant, cook, contractor and detention officer (CPR News).

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Donald Willoughby (U)

Retired merchant ship captain (Politics1).

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Will Powers (R)

Also on the ballot

Ryan Apelbaum (R)

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Hickenlooper +13.8. Mark Baisley needs 350,023 net votes. Odds 2% today, 7% with the plan.

Questions

Can Mark Baisley win the U.S. Senate race in Colorado in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 85,128 net votes; the gap is 350,023. The rest would take a 10.4-point national shift.

Where are the votes Mark Baisley needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: El Paso County, Jefferson County, Douglas County, Arapahoe County, Weld County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Mark Baisley need to persuade?

About 29,814 voters who lean John Hickenlooper today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 59,628 persuadable voters leaning John Hickenlooper.

When does early voting start in Colorado in 2026?

Colorado votes by mail: every active voter is mailed a ballot starting October 2, 2026, drop boxes open by October 12, and voter service and polling centers open October 19. Register by October 26 to be mailed a ballot; same-day registration continues through 7 p.m. on Election Day. Ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Colorado Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Colorado Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.