Delaware · U.S. House · At-large · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Joseph Arminio.

McBride starts 12.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 9,028 net votes toward Arminio, a 2.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 9.7-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Arminio the one standing if one comes.

40,330
net votes between Arminio and a win
36
days to election day. Early voting opens October 22.
12.4 pts
McBride lead, our starting line from recent results
In short

A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.7-point national wave.

Odds today4%
Odds with the plan8%
Net votes to find40,330
WhereED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County), ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County), ED 4 RD 40 (Sussex County)
Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: McBride +11.8. Joseph Arminio needs 39,362 net votes. Odds 4% today, 10% with the plan.
The number

162,100 votes.

That is half of the 324,199 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Arminio stands today, and what is missing:

140,816 Joseph Arminio baseline
181,145 Sarah McBride baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Attorney General). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

4% today. 8% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Arminio wins in
8%
of 20,000 simulated elections
With no plan
4%
tieArminio loses by 89,979wins by 27,282
How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%
The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Arminio short by 31,241.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade
4,471
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,471

Who. 4,471 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McBride today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Arminio needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning McBride.

Mobilize
4,217
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 38,850

Who. At least 38,850 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in election districts where Arminio's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate
340
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 972

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the election districts that lean Arminio's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 9,028 net votes against a gap of 40,330. Still 31,302 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 9.7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 election districts carry 16% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Kent County: 2,141 net votes in the planNew Castle County: 2,625 net votes in the planSussex County: 4,263 net votes in the planKentNew CastleSussex
Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset
  1. 01
    ED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +57. 2.8% split their ticket. 847 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +185
  2. 02
    ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +52. 3.2% split their ticket. 837 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +166
  3. 03
    ED 4 RD 40 (Sussex County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +53. 3.7% split their ticket. 770 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +162
  4. 04
    ED 1 RD 35 (Sussex County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +46. 3.2% split their ticket. 636 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +113
  5. 05
    ED 5 RD 39 (Sussex County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +43. 3.7% split their ticket. 617 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +112
  6. 06
    ED 8 RD 35 (Sussex County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +59. 2.4% split their ticket. 487 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +110
  7. 07
    ED 6 RD 41 (Sussex County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +38. 2.5% split their ticket. 665 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +105
  8. 08
    ED 9 RD 30 (Kent County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +57. 2.7% split their ticket. 466 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +104
  9. 09
    ED 5 RD 11 (Kent County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +35. 2.6% split their ticket. 692 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +96
  10. 10
    ED 2 RD 41 (Sussex County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +45. 3.5% split their ticket. 524 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +95
  11. 11
    ED 2 RD 36 (Sussex County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +24. 5.7% split their ticket. 771 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +93
  12. 12
    ED 6 RD 36 (Sussex County)mobilize
    Starting line Arminio +22. 3.6% split their ticket. 1,008 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +93
What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

ED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County) carries the most.

ED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County) gives this plan more net votes than any other election district: 185. It sits at Arminio +57 on our starting line, and 2.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County) is a turnout target.

Arminio's side leads ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County) by about 52 points on our starting line, and it cast 837 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022. Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 151 votes there.

ED 2 RD 36 (Sussex County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the election districts in this plan, ED 2 RD 36 (Sussex County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 5.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of August 26, 2026, McBride had $2.70 million in cash on hand to Arminio's $2,181. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Arminio's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

-100-100-80-80-60-60-40-40-20-2000+20+20+40+40+60+60+80+80Arminio's side, President 2024 margin (points)U.S. House 2024 margin (points)
Precincts
526
Slope
0.962
R²
0.992
Residual SD
2.7 pts
Crossover precincts
104

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Arminio's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 22.

  1. Now to October 10
    Find them

    Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these election districts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Arminio, with McBride, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.

  2. October 11 to 21
    Persuade

    Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,471 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.

  3. October 22 to November 1
    Bank the ballots

    Early in-person voting runs October 22 through November 1 in each county, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county elections office by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests are due October 30.

  4. November 2
    Turn them out

    The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 38,850 of them live where Arminio is favored. Mailed ballots must reach the county Department of Elections office by 8 p.m. on November 3 and cannot be dropped at early voting sites or polling places.

  5. November 3
    Election day

    Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for identification but can sign an affirmation instead. Delaware has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 10. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: McBride carried the 2024 House race by 15.7 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 14.7 points; Jennings carried the 2022 attorney general's race by 7.7 points.

  1. Arminio wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McBride.
  2. In ED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County) and ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 9.7 points toward Arminio's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The work

5,289 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 100,943 dials to 33,648 households, before the last ballot is cast.

34K
households on the target list
101K
dials across three attempts
5,289
live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $10,831 at our published rates: 33,648 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Joseph Arminio (R)

Wilmington native, political scientist, author and educator who holds a Johns Hopkins bachelor's degree and an MIT doctorate in political science and has taught history and government at Lincoln University. His American Prosperity Plan centers on reducing household, business and federal debt.

Cash on hand $2,181 and $6,634 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through August 26, 2026.

Favorite · incumbent

Sarah McBride (D)

U.S. representative for Delaware's at-large district since 2025 and the first openly transgender member of Congress. She represented the 1st District in the Delaware Senate from 2020 to 2025 and was national press secretary of the Human Rights Campaign.

Cash on hand $2,700,202 and $5,060,925 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through August 26, 2026.

Declared write-in

Earl Cooper (U)

Former pastor running as a declared write-in candidate for the at-large House seat. His platform includes a person-to-person Senior Access Hotline and support for community and small business growth.

Declared write-in

Scott Walker (U)

Delaware resident running as a declared unaffiliated write-in candidate for the at-large House seat.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

  1. September 27, 2026
    Underdog plan published

    Starting line: McBride +11.8. Joseph Arminio needs 39,362 net votes. Odds 4% today, 10% with the plan.

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Questions

Can Joseph Arminio win Delaware's at-large congressional district in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 9,028 net votes; the gap is 40,330. The rest would take a 9.7-point national shift.

Where are the votes Joseph Arminio needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: ED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County), ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County), ED 4 RD 40 (Sussex County), ED 1 RD 35 (Sussex County), ED 5 RD 39 (Sussex County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Joseph Arminio need to persuade?

About 2,236 voters who lean Sarah McBride today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,471 persuadable voters leaning Sarah McBride.

When does early voting start in Delaware in 2026?

Early in-person voting in Delaware runs October 22 through November 1, 2026, at early voting sites in each county, with no excuse needed and no early voting on October 25. Voting by mail still requires an excuse under state law; requests are due October 30, and ballots must reach the county Department of Elections office by 8 p.m. on November 3. The registration deadline is October 10, and Delaware does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Delaware Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Delaware Department of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.

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