The Political Group · Delaware 2026 · as of September 27, 2026

Where a dollar moves a Delaware race.

2 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall program
Delaware U.S. Senate
Michael Katz vs. Chris Coons
6% → 13%+7 pts35,209$11,131
35,963 households
Brief ›
DE-AL
Joseph Arminio vs. Sarah McBride
4% → 8%+4 pts40,330$10,831
33,648 households
Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · Delaware U.S. Senate · Michael Katz (R) vs. Chris Coons (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes an 8.0-point national wave.

Odds today6%
With the plan13%
Net votes to find35,209
Call program$11,131

Where

  1. ED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County) +188
    Starting line Katz +59. 2.3% split their ticket. 847 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  2. ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County) +172
    Starting line Katz +55. 2.6% split their ticket. 837 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. ED 4 RD 40 (Sussex County) +165
    Starting line Katz +56. 2.5% split their ticket. 770 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  4. ED 1 RD 35 (Sussex County) +117
    Starting line Katz +47. 2.9% split their ticket. 636 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  5. ED 8 RD 35 (Sussex County) +109
    Starting line Katz +60. 1.7% split their ticket. 487 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 election districts carry 16% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +4,294
    4,294 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Coons today.
  • Mobilize +4,544
    At least 41,917 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in election districts where Katz's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +566
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the election districts that lean Katz's way.

Plus a 8-point national shift (25,806 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Katz wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Coons.
  2. In the election districts Katz's side carries in Sussex County and Kent County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 8.0 points toward Katz's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    525 precincts, slope 1.008, R² 0.992, 101 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -62,971 to 11,857
  • Cash on hand, August 26
    Katz $98,413 · Coons $4,793,384
  • Call program
    35,963 households, 107,890 dials, about 5,653 live conversations and 1,928 voter IDs, at $0.3095 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · DE-AL · Joseph Arminio (R) vs. Sarah McBride (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.7-point national wave.

Odds today4%
With the plan8%
Net votes to find40,330
Call program$10,831

Where

  1. ED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County) +185
    Starting line Arminio +57. 2.8% split their ticket. 847 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  2. ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County) +166
    Starting line Arminio +52. 3.2% split their ticket. 837 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. ED 4 RD 40 (Sussex County) +162
    Starting line Arminio +53. 3.7% split their ticket. 770 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  4. ED 1 RD 35 (Sussex County) +113
    Starting line Arminio +46. 3.2% split their ticket. 636 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  5. ED 5 RD 39 (Sussex County) +112
    Starting line Arminio +43. 3.7% split their ticket. 617 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 election districts carry 16% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +4,471
    4,471 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McBride today.
  • Mobilize +4,217
    At least 38,850 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in election districts where Arminio's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +340
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the election districts that lean Arminio's way.

Plus a 9.7-point national shift (31,301 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Arminio wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McBride.
  2. In ED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County) and ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 9.7 points toward Arminio's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    526 precincts, slope 0.962, R² 0.992, 104 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -68,588 to 6,310
  • Cash on hand, August 26
    Arminio $2,181 · McBride $2,700,202
  • Call program
    33,648 households, 100,943 dials, about 5,289 live conversations and 1,804 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Delaware Department of Elections precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.