Delaware · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Michael Katz.

Coons starts 10.9 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 9,404 net votes toward Katz, a 2.9-point gain. Winning outright would take an 8.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Katz the one standing if one comes.

35,209

net votes between Katz and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 22.

10.9 pts

Coons lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Delaware races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes an 8.0-point national wave.

Odds today6%

Odds with the plan13%

Net votes to find35,209

WhereED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County), ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County), ED 4 RD 40 (Sussex County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Coons +10.3. Michael Katz needs 34,084 net votes. Odds 7% today, 14% with the plan.

The number

162,100 votes.

That is half of the 324,199 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Katz stands today, and what is missing:

142,687 Michael Katz baseline

177,896 Chris Coons baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this state (President and U.S. Senate in 2024, Attorney General and Treasurer in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

6% today. 13% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Katz wins in

13%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Katz short by 25,742.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

4,294

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,294

Who. 4,294 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Coons today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Katz needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Coons.

Mobilize

4,544

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 41,917

Who. At least 41,917 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in election districts where Katz's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

566

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,616

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the election districts that lean Katz's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 9,404 net votes against a gap of 35,209. Still 25,805 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 election districts carry 16% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
ED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +59. 2.3% split their ticket. 847 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+188
02
ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +55. 2.6% split their ticket. 837 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+172
03
ED 4 RD 40 (Sussex County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +56. 2.5% split their ticket. 770 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+165
04
ED 1 RD 35 (Sussex County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +47. 2.9% split their ticket. 636 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+117
05
ED 8 RD 35 (Sussex County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +60. 1.7% split their ticket. 487 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+109
06
ED 5 RD 39 (Sussex County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +45. 1.6% split their ticket. 617 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+106
07
ED 6 RD 41 (Sussex County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +40. 1.8% split their ticket. 665 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+105
08
ED 9 RD 30 (Kent County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +56. 2.7% split their ticket. 466 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+103
09
ED 5 RD 11 (Kent County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +36. 2.4% split their ticket. 692 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+99
10
ED 6 RD 11 (Kent County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +49. 3.3% split their ticket. 476 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+97
11
ED 6 RD 36 (Sussex County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +24. 2.5% split their ticket. 1,008 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+96
12
ED 7 RD 40 (Sussex County)mobilize
Starting line Katz +38. 2.5% split their ticket. 639 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+96

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Sussex County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Sussex County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 4,137. It sits at Katz +14 on our starting line.

Kent County is a turnout target.

In the election districts Katz's side carries in Kent County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 1,312 votes in this plan.

Spend it where it counts.

As of August 26, 2026, Coons had $4.79 million in cash on hand to Katz's $98K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 9,404 net votes. The gap is 35,209. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.9 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Katz's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 525
Slope: 1.008
R²: 0.992
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 101

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Katz's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 22.

Now to October 10
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these election districts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Katz, with Coons, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 11 to 21
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,294 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 22 to November 1
Bank the ballots
Early in-person voting runs October 22 through November 1 in each county, with no excuse needed. Voting by mail requires an excuse, and mailed ballots must reach the county elections office by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open. Requests are due October 30.
November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 41,917 of them live where Katz is favored. Mailed ballots must reach the county Department of Elections office by 8 p.m. on November 3 and cannot be dropped at early voting sites or polling places.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for identification but can sign an affirmation instead. Delaware has no same-day registration; the deadline is October 10. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 14.7 points; Blunt Rochester carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 17.1 points; Jennings carried the 2022 attorney general's race by 7.7 points.

Katz wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Coons.
In the election districts Katz's side carries in Sussex County and Kent County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 8.0 points toward Katz's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

5,653 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 107,890 dials to 35,963 households, before the last ballot is cast.

36K

households on the target list

108K

dials across three attempts

5,653

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $11,131 at our published rates: 35,963 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Michael Katz (R)

Pediatric critical care anesthesiologist who came to Delaware from Boston Children's Hospital to join A.I. duPont Hospital for Children, and a small business owner and executive who represented the 4th District in the Delaware Senate from 2009 to 2013. He holds a medical degree and an MBA from Georgetown and is also endorsed by the Independent Party of Delaware.

Cash on hand $98,413 and $159,367 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through August 26, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Chris Coons (D)

U.S. senator from Delaware since 2010, vice chair of the Senate Ethics Committee and the lead Democrat on the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, who also serves on the Foreign Relations, Judiciary and Small Business committees. Raised in Hockessin and a graduate of Amherst College and Yale Law School, he previously led New Castle County as county executive from 2005 to 2010.

Cash on hand $4,793,384 and $4,168,081 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through August 26, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Declared write-in

John Shulli (U)

U.S. Army Reserve colonel commissioned in 1997 who commanded the 649th Brigade and teaches as a faculty instructor at the U.S. Army War College. A Delaware native and Dickinson High School graduate, he campaigns on an AI-driven American Renaissance powered by small modular nuclear reactors.

Cash on hand $8,414 and $118,334 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through August 26, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Declared write-in

Travis Stevens (U)

Former bedside nurse running as a declared write-in who publishes a daily public letter to Delaware voters on health care, housing and democratic reform. His platform includes universal health care access, affordable prescription drugs, campaign finance reform and ranked-choice voting.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Declared write-in

William McVay (U)

Delaware resident running as a declared unaffiliated write-in candidate for U.S. Senate.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Coons +10.3. Michael Katz needs 34,084 net votes. Odds 7% today, 14% with the plan.

Questions

Can Michael Katz win the U.S. Senate race in Delaware in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 9,404 net votes; the gap is 35,209. The rest would take an 8.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes Michael Katz needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Sussex County, New Castle County, Kent County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Michael Katz need to persuade?

About 2,147 voters who lean Chris Coons today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,294 persuadable voters leaning Chris Coons.

When does early voting start in Delaware in 2026?

Early in-person voting in Delaware runs October 22 through November 1, 2026, at early voting sites in each county, with no excuse needed and no early voting on October 25. Voting by mail still requires an excuse under state law; requests are due October 30, and ballots must reach the county Department of Elections office by 8 p.m. on November 3. The registration deadline is October 10, and Delaware does not offer same-day registration.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Delaware Department of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Delaware Department of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.

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