Upset Brief · Delaware U.S. Senate · Michael Katz (R) vs. Chris Coons (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes an 8.0-point national wave.

6%
odds today
13%
odds with the plan
35,209
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 22
Where
  1. 01
    ED 2 RD 40 (Sussex County)
    Starting line Katz +59. 2.3% split their ticket. 847 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +188
  2. 02
    ED 6 RD 40 (Sussex County)
    Starting line Katz +55. 2.6% split their ticket. 837 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +172
  3. 03
    ED 4 RD 40 (Sussex County)
    Starting line Katz +56. 2.5% split their ticket. 770 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +165
  4. 04
    ED 1 RD 35 (Sussex County)
    Starting line Katz +47. 2.9% split their ticket. 636 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +117
  5. 05
    ED 8 RD 35 (Sussex County)
    Starting line Katz +60. 1.7% split their ticket. 487 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +109
  6. 06
    ED 5 RD 39 (Sussex County)
    Starting line Katz +45. 1.6% split their ticket. 617 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +106

The top 12 election districts carry 16% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,294 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Coons today.
    +4,294
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 41,917 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in election districts where Katz's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,544
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the election districts that lean Katz's way.
    +566

Plus a national shift of 8 points of margin (25,806 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Katz wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Coons.
  2. In the election districts Katz's side carries in Sussex County and Kent County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 8.0 points toward Katz's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    525 precincts, R² 0.992, 101 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -62,971 to 11,857 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through August 26
    Katz $98,413 cash on hand; Coons $4,793,384.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    35,963 households, 107,890 dials, about 5,653 live conversations: an estimated $11,131 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $11,131 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Delaware races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Delaware Department of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.