Upset Brief · FL-12 · Kimberly Overman (D) vs. Gus Bilirakis (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 15.8-point national wave.

1%
odds today
1%
odds with the plan
49,876
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 169 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line Overman +27. 2.3% split their ticket. About 1,553 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +147
  2. 02
    Precinct 344 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line Overman +51. 2.2% split their ticket. About 558 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +110
  3. 03
    Precinct 317 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line Overman +52. 3.6% split their ticket. About 475 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +104
  4. 04
    Precinct 027 (Pasco County)
    Starting line Bilirakis +53. 5.8% split their ticket.
    +102
  5. 05
    Precinct 563 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line Overman +48. 2.1% split their ticket. About 522 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +96
  6. 06
    Precinct 347 (Hillsborough County)
    Starting line Overman +39. 1.5% split their ticket. About 635 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +94

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,358 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bilirakis today.
    +3,358
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 10,727 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Overman's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,348
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Overman's way.
    +473

Plus a national shift of 15.8 points of margin (44,698 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Overman wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bilirakis.
  2. In Precinct 169 (Hillsborough County) and Precinct 344 (Hillsborough County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 15.8 points toward Overman's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    211 precincts, R² 0.974, 33 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -77,285 to -12,071 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Overman $4,906 cash on hand; Bilirakis $554,070.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    12,968 households, 38,903 dials, about 2,039 live conversations: an estimated $5,465 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,465 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.