Florida · 28 federal races · 37 days left

Every Florida race. From the other side.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

Florida's 2026 House elections use the congressional map the Legislature passed in 2026 (HB 1-D, signed May 4, 2026). Because the lines changed, the precinct math uses statewide contests (President and U.S. Senate in 2024; Governor, U.S. Senate and Attorney General in 2022) re-aggregated onto the new districts.

The 10th District race is not on the ballot: Representative Maxwell Frost is the only qualified candidate, so under Florida law the race does not appear.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.

28

underdog plans, built from precinct returns

5,466

net votes: the closest upset in Florida (FL-25)

37

days until November 3. Early voting opens October 24.

Pick a race

28 plans. One question each.

Florida U.S. Senate · vs. incumbent

How Angie Nixon wins

411,890 net votes to find, most of them in Broward County and Orange County.

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FL-01 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Gay Valimont

124,404 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 98 (Escambia County) and Precinct 28 (Escambia County).

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FL-02 · open seat

What it would take for Amanda Marie Green

63,645 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 4 (Gadsden County) and Precinct 5 (Gadsden County).

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FL-03 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Seth Harp

71,722 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 59 (Alachua County) and Precinct 48 (Alachua County).

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FL-04 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for LaShonda "L.J." Holloway

46,244 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 707 (Duval County) and Precinct 1001 (Duval County).

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FL-05 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Rachel Grage

79,510 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 408 (St. Johns County) and Precinct 402 (St. Johns County).

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FL-06 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Eric Yonce

106,760 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 606 (Volusia County) and Precinct 603 (Volusia County).

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FL-07 · open seat

What it would take for Bale Dalton

49,421 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 010 (Seminole County) and Precinct 007 (Seminole County).

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FL-08 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Jennifer Jenkins

32,988 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 309 (Brevard County) and Precinct 519 (Brevard County).

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FL-09 · open seat

What it would take for Darren Soto

56,300 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 2002 (Osceola County) and Precinct 2004 (Osceola County).

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FL-11 · open seat

What it would take for James Pericola

69,751 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 205 (Orange County) and Precinct 119 (Orange County).

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FL-12 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Kimberly Overman

49,876 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 169 (Hillsborough County) and Precinct 344 (Hillsborough County).

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FL-13 · vs. incumbent

How Leela Gray wins

12,114 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 140 (Pinellas County) and Precinct 627 (Pinellas County).

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FL-14 · vs. incumbent

How Mike Beltran wins

26,560 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 913 (Hillsborough County) and Precinct 944 (Hillsborough County).

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FL-15 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Robert People

63,600 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 305 (Hillsborough County) and Precinct 562 (Hillsborough County).

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FL-16 · open seat

What it would take for Kelly Kirschner

50,447 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 120 (Pinellas County) and Precinct 105 (Pinellas County).

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FL-17 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Matthew Montavon

85,885 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 115 (Sarasota County) and Precinct 202 (Lee County).

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FL-18 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Curtis Gibson

52,378 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 3006 (Osceola County) and Precinct 3007 (Osceola County).

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FL-19 · open seat

What it would take for Victor Arias

109,850 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 255 (Collier County) and Precinct 303 (Lee County).

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FL-20 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Brent Andersen

83,450 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct J011 (Broward County) and Precinct N012 (Broward County).

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FL-21 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for James T. Martin

66,310 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 17 (St. Lucie County) and Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County).

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FL-22 · open seat

What it would take for Pia Dandiya

33,229 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct E011 (Broward County) and Precinct N013 (Broward County).

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FL-23 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Deborah Adeimy

31,951 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 5601 (Palm Beach County) and Precinct 8645 (Palm Beach County).

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FL-24 · open seat

What it would take for Te Mayonna Brown

76,558 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct V009 (Broward County) and Precinct V015 (Broward County).

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FL-25 · vs. incumbent

How Scott Singer wins

5,466 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct Y001 (Broward County) and Precinct B001 (Broward County).

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FL-26 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Nicole Locklin

36,176 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct W018 (Broward County) and Precinct W009 (Broward County).

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FL-27 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Eliott Rodriguez

35,036 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 051 (Miami-Dade County) and Precinct 584 (Miami-Dade County).

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FL-28 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Phil "Felipe" Ehr

54,268 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 5 (Monroe County) and Precinct 4 (Monroe County).

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Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Florida 2026 election guide.