The Political Group · Florida 2026 · as of September 26, 2026

Where a dollar moves a Florida race.

28 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall program
FL-14
Mike Beltran vs. Kathy Castor
3% → 50%+47 pts26,560$13,235
44,547 households
Brief ›
Florida U.S. Senate
Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody
14% → 52%+38 pts411,890$256,688
933,749 households
Brief ›
FL-13
Leela Gray vs. Anna Paulina Luna
23% → 51%+28 pts12,114$7,659
22,085 households
Brief ›
FL-08
Jennifer Jenkins vs. Mike Haridopolos
2% → 17%+15 pts32,988$11,619
37,541 households
Brief ›
FL-25
Scott Singer vs. Jared Moskowitz
50% → 59%+9 pts5,466$6,400
16,142 households
Brief ›
FL-22
Pia Dandiya vs. Casey Askar
4% → 7%+3 pts33,229$6,872
18,488 households
Brief ›
FL-16
Kelly Kirschner vs. Sydney Gruters
1% → 3%+2 pts50,447$6,814
17,186 households
Brief ›
FL-23
Deborah Adeimy vs. Lois Frankel
3% → 5%+2 pts31,951$4,639
10,397 households
Brief ›
FL-04
LaShonda "L.J." Holloway vs. Aaron Bean
1% → 2%+1 pts46,244$8,811
26,350 households
Brief ›
FL-07
Bale Dalton vs. Ryan Elijah
1% → 2%+1 pts49,421$5,557
12,453 households
Brief ›
FL-26
Nicole Locklin vs. Mario Diaz-Balart
1% → 2%+1 pts36,176$7,130
19,182 households
Brief ›
FL-01
Gay Valimont vs. Jimmy Patronis
0% → 0%+0 pts124,404$4,133
8,773 households
Brief ›
FL-02
Amanda Marie Green vs. Austin Rogers
<1% → <1%+0 pts63,645$9,199
27,508 households
Brief ›
FL-03
Seth Harp vs. Kat Cammack
<1% → <1%+0 pts71,722$8,504
25,432 households
Brief ›
FL-05
Rachel Grage vs. John H. Rutherford
<1% → <1%+0 pts79,510$2,717
4,763 households
Brief ›
FL-06
Eric Yonce vs. Randy Fine
0% → 0%+0 pts106,760$4,270
9,063 households
Brief ›
FL-09
Darren Soto vs. Dan Green
<1% → <1%+0 pts56,300$7,039
18,938 households
Brief ›
FL-11
James Pericola vs. Joe Strada
<1% → <1%+0 pts69,751$6,558
16,540 households
Brief ›
FL-12
Kimberly Overman vs. Gus Bilirakis
1% → 1%+0 pts49,876$5,465
12,968 households
Brief ›
FL-15
Robert People vs. Laurel Lee
<1% → <1%+0 pts63,600$7,717
22,252 households
Brief ›
FL-17
Matthew Montavon vs. Greg Steube
<1% → <1%+0 pts85,885$4,035
8,566 households
Brief ›
FL-18
Curtis Gibson vs. Scott Franklin
<1% → <1%+0 pts52,378$6,220
14,761 households
Brief ›
FL-19
Victor Arias vs. Jim Schwartzel
0% → 0%+0 pts109,850$3,617
6,945 households
Brief ›
FL-20
Brent Andersen vs. Debbie Wasserman Schultz
0% → 0%+0 pts83,450$2,135
3,742 households
Brief ›
FL-21
James T. Martin vs. Brian Mast
<1% → <1%+0 pts66,310$4,777
10,706 households
Brief ›
FL-24
Te Mayonna Brown vs. Oliver G. Gilbert III
0% → 0%+0 pts76,558$1,615
2,831 households
Brief ›
FL-27
Eliott Rodriguez vs. Maria Elvira Salazar
2% → 2%+0 pts35,036$2,699
4,731 households
Brief ›
FL-28
Phil "Felipe" Ehr vs. Carlos A. Gimenez
<1% → <1%+0 pts54,268$2,583
4,528 households
Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · FL-14 · Mike Beltran (R) vs. Kathy Castor (D) · incumbent

Beltran can win. The math closes using 100 percent of what history allows.

Odds today3%
With the plan50%
Net votes to find26,560
Call program$13,235

Where

  1. Precinct 913 (Hillsborough County) +484
    Starting line Castor +18. 1.4% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 944 (Hillsborough County) +315
    Starting line Castor +35. 2.3% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 909 (Hillsborough County) +306
    Starting line Castor +3. 2.6% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 821 (Hillsborough County) +301
    Starting line Castor +11. 2.7% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 761 (Hillsborough County) +296
    Starting line Beltran +40. 1.8% split their ticket. About 704 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 14% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +25,407
    Ticket splitters and the 16 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 25,407 leaning Castor today.
  • Mobilize +1,029
    At least 12,467 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Beltran's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +448
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Beltran's way.

What has to be true

  1. Beltran wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Castor.
  2. In Precinct 761 (Hillsborough County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 100 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    233 precincts, slope 0.943, R² 0.978, 49 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -25,497 to 27,502
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Beltran $1,939,864 · Castor $1,744,723
  • Call program
    44,547 households, 133,642 dials, about 7,003 live conversations and 2,388 voter IDs, at $0.2971 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · Florida U.S. Senate · Angie Nixon (D) vs. Ashley Moody (R) · incumbent

Nixon can win. The math closes using 89 percent of what history allows.

Odds today14%
With the plan52%
Net votes to find411,890
Call program$256,688

Where

  1. Broward County +54,957
    Starting line Nixon +28. 27,642 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 281,503 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  2. Orange County +35,725
    Starting line Nixon +21. 19,726 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 204,874 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. Miami-Dade County +33,543
    Starting line Nixon +1. 30,512 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 389,203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  4. Palm Beach County +31,652
    Starting line Nixon +10. 24,903 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 207,213 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  5. Hillsborough County +28,005
    Starting line Nixon +4. 22,057 persuadable voters leaning Moody; 194,125 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 66% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +319,736
    Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 360,075 leaning Moody today.
  • Mobilize +101,882
    At least 938,694 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Nixon's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +10,866
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Nixon's way.

What has to be true

  1. Nixon wins 44 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Moody.
  2. In the precincts Nixon's side carries in Broward County and Orange County, 31 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 89 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    5,733 precincts, slope 0.999, R² 0.986, 891 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -649,096 to 698,989
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Nixon $264,978 · Moody $8,491,175
  • Call program
    933,749 households, 2,801,247 dials, about 146,785 live conversations and 50,054 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-13 · Leela Gray (D) vs. Anna Paulina Luna (R) · incumbent

Gray can win. The math closes using 85 percent of what history allows.

Odds today23%
With the plan51%
Net votes to find12,114
Call program$7,659

Where

  1. Precinct 140 (Pinellas County) +201
    Starting line Gray +22. 2.2% split their ticket. About 771 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 627 (Pinellas County) +193
    Starting line Luna +10. 3.0% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 162 (Pinellas County) +174
    Starting line Gray +28. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,778 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 537 (Pinellas County) +155
    Starting line Gray +22. 2.5% split their ticket. About 566 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 637 (Pinellas County) +154
    Starting line Luna +8. 1.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +11,548
    Ticket splitters and the 6 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 13,636 leaning Luna today.
  • Mobilize +656
    At least 9,853 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gray's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +516
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gray's way.

What has to be true

  1. Gray wins 42 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Luna.
  2. In Precinct 162 (Pinellas County) and Precinct 140 (Pinellas County), 30 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 85 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    212 precincts, slope 0.996, R² 0.958, 27 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -27,650 to 28,655
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Gray $683,295 · Luna $1,474,124
  • Call program
    22,085 households, 66,255 dials, about 3,472 live conversations and 1,184 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-08 · Jennifer Jenkins (D) vs. Mike Haridopolos (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.0-point national wave.

Odds today2%
With the plan17%
Net votes to find32,988
Call program$11,619

Where

  1. Precinct 309 (Brevard County) +335
    Starting line Haridopolos +6. 2.2% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 519 (Brevard County) +287
    Starting line even. 2.1% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 539 (Orange County) +268
    Starting line Jenkins +36. 2.9% split their ticket. About 1,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 438 (Orange County) +261
    Starting line Jenkins +27. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,627 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 205 (Brevard County) +249
    Starting line Haridopolos +31. 2.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +14,908
    Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 14,908 leaning Haridopolos today.
  • Mobilize +1,915
    At least 22,985 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Jenkins's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +562
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Jenkins's way.

Plus a 5-point national shift (15,603 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Jenkins wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Haridopolos.
  2. In Precinct 539 (Orange County) and Precinct 435 (Orange County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 5.0 points toward Jenkins's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    179 precincts, slope 0.952, R² 0.978, 40 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -42,914 to 11,866
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Jenkins $108,111 · Haridopolos $1,197,777
  • Call program
    37,541 households, 112,624 dials, about 5,901 live conversations and 2,012 voter IDs, at $0.3095 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-25 · Scott Singer (R) vs. Jared Moskowitz (D) · incumbent

Singer can win. The math closes using 100 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%
With the plan59%
Net votes to find5,466
Call program$6,400

Where

  1. Precinct Y001 (Broward County) +140
    Starting line Singer +22. 1.8% split their ticket. About 1,406 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct B001 (Broward County) +104
    Starting line Singer +36. 1.6% split their ticket. About 608 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 8834 (Palm Beach County) +98
    Starting line Singer +52. 0.8% split their ticket. About 507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct V024 (Broward County) +88
    Starting line Singer +36. 1.5% split their ticket. About 637 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 1730 (Palm Beach County) +80
    Starting line Singer +20. 2.1% split their ticket. About 704 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 24% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +2,730
    2,730 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Moskowitz today.
  • Mobilize +1,111
    At least 16,961 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Singer's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +341
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Singer's way.

What has to be true

  1. Singer wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Moskowitz.
  2. In Precinct Y001 (Broward County) and Precinct 8834 (Palm Beach County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 100 percent of what recent Florida results show is possible.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    230 precincts, slope 1.014, R² 0.966, 35 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -27,143 to 35,280
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Singer $476,478 · Moskowitz $1,882,634
  • Call program
    16,142 households, 48,427 dials, about 2,538 live conversations and 865 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-22 · Pia Dandiya (D) vs. Casey Askar (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 10.6-point national wave.

Odds today4%
With the plan7%
Net votes to find33,229
Call program$6,872

Where

  1. Precinct E011 (Broward County) +161
    Starting line Dandiya +27. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,431 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct N013 (Broward County) +122
    Starting line Dandiya +18. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,454 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 1601 (Palm Beach County) +111
    Starting line Dandiya +76. 2.0% split their ticket. About 398 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 5501 (Palm Beach County) +108
    Starting line Dandiya +48. 1.3% split their ticket. About 603 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 1602 (Palm Beach County) +105
    Starting line Dandiya +90. 2.3% split their ticket. About 312 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,163
    3,163 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Askar today.
  • Mobilize +1,420
    At least 19,528 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dandiya's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +329
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dandiya's way.

Plus a 10.6-point national shift (28,317 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Dandiya wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Askar.
  2. In Precinct E011 (Broward County) and Precinct 1601 (Palm Beach County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 10.6 points toward Dandiya's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    201 precincts, slope 1.096, R² 0.979, 34 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -60,112 to 2,811
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Dandiya $1,296,684 · Askar $1,058,655
  • Call program
    18,488 households, 55,464 dials, about 2,906 live conversations and 991 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-16 · Kelly Kirschner (D) vs. Sydney Gruters (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.3-point national wave.

Odds today1%
With the plan3%
Net votes to find50,447
Call program$6,814

Where

  1. Precinct 120 (Pinellas County) +195
    Starting line Kirschner +72. 2.0% split their ticket. About 704 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 105 (Pinellas County) +157
    Starting line Kirschner +60. 1.9% split their ticket. About 629 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 101 (Pinellas County) +154
    Starting line Kirschner +51. 2.1% split their ticket. About 732 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 119 (Pinellas County) +144
    Starting line Kirschner +68. 2.0% split their ticket. About 544 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 203 (Pinellas County) +109
    Starting line Kirschner +51. 1.6% split their ticket. About 517 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,355
    3,355 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gruters today.
  • Mobilize +2,614
    At least 16,904 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Kirschner's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +452
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Kirschner's way.

Plus a 13.3-point national shift (44,024 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Kirschner wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gruters.
  2. In Precinct 120 (Pinellas County) and Precinct 105 (Pinellas County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 13.3 points toward Kirschner's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    216 precincts, slope 0.982, R² 0.992, 35 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -82,381 to -5,671
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Kirschner $80,738 · Gruters $622,381
  • Call program
    17,186 households, 51,558 dials, about 2,702 live conversations and 921 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-23 · Deborah Adeimy (R) vs. Lois Frankel (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 11.8-point national wave.

Odds today3%
With the plan5%
Net votes to find31,951
Call program$4,639

Where

  1. Precinct 5601 (Palm Beach County) +74
    Starting line Adeimy +39. 4.5% split their ticket. About 281 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 8645 (Palm Beach County) +62
    Starting line Adeimy +21. 2.0% split their ticket. About 670 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 8641 (Palm Beach County) +46
    Starting line Adeimy +14. 3.1% split their ticket. About 576 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 5603 (Palm Beach County) +43
    Starting line Adeimy +37. 4.9% split their ticket. About 166 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 3902 (Palm Beach County) +41
    Starting line Adeimy +14. 1.6% split their ticket. About 530 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +2,613
    2,613 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Frankel today.
  • Mobilize +601
    At least 8,983 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Adeimy's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +300
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Adeimy's way.

Plus a 11.8-point national shift (28,437 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Adeimy wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Frankel.
  2. In Precinct 8645 (Palm Beach County) and Precinct 5601 (Palm Beach County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 11.8 points toward Adeimy's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    371 precincts, slope 1.008, R² 0.984, 66 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -56,470 to -584
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Adeimy $33,691 · Frankel $1,212,162
  • Call program
    10,397 households, 31,190 dials, about 1,634 live conversations and 557 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-04 · LaShonda "L.J." Holloway (D) vs. Aaron Bean (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.0-point national wave.

Odds today1%
With the plan2%
Net votes to find46,244
Call program$8,811

Where

  1. Precinct 707 (Duval County) +417
    Starting line Holloway +51. 2.4% split their ticket. About 2,306 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 1001 (Duval County) +404
    Starting line Holloway +71. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,578 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 710 (Duval County) +300
    Starting line Holloway +53. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,504 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 709 (Duval County) +280
    Starting line Holloway +47. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,560 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 803 (Duval County) +224
    Starting line Holloway +61. 1.6% split their ticket. About 940 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 41% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +2,363
    2,363 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bean today.
  • Mobilize +4,138
    At least 32,216 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Holloway's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +436
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Holloway's way.

Plus a 14-point national shift (39,306 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Holloway wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bean.
  2. In Precinct 707 (Duval County) and Precinct 1001 (Duval County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 14.0 points toward Holloway's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    145 precincts, slope 0.996, R² 0.998, 19 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -72,290 to -6,663
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Holloway $23,633 · Bean $1,632,550
  • Call program
    26,350 households, 79,049 dials, about 4,142 live conversations and 1,412 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-07 · Bale Dalton (D) vs. Ryan Elijah (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.3-point national wave.

Odds today1%
With the plan2%
Net votes to find49,421
Call program$5,557

Where

  1. Precinct 010 (Seminole County) +204
    Starting line Dalton +29. 3.1% split their ticket. About 1,720 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 007 (Seminole County) +188
    Starting line Dalton +45. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,086 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 052 (Seminole County) +105
    Starting line Dalton +26. 2.6% split their ticket. About 978 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 009 (Seminole County) +96
    Starting line Dalton +25. 2.7% split their ticket. About 793 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 005 (Seminole County) +80
    Starting line Dalton +15. 1.8% split their ticket. About 1,231 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,902
    3,902 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Elijah today.
  • Mobilize +712
    At least 8,842 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dalton's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +491
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dalton's way.

Plus a 14.3-point national shift (44,317 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Dalton wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Elijah.
  2. In Precinct 010 (Seminole County) and Precinct 007 (Seminole County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 14.3 points toward Dalton's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    156 precincts, slope 0.962, R² 0.985, 22 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -79,945 to -8,309
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Dalton $475,858 · Elijah $186,155
  • Call program
    12,453 households, 37,359 dials, about 1,958 live conversations and 668 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-26 · Nicole Locklin (D) vs. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 15.3-point national wave.

Odds today1%
With the plan2%
Net votes to find36,176
Call program$7,130

Where

  1. Precinct W018 (Broward County) +279
    Starting line Locklin +29. 2.3% split their ticket. About 2,242 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct W009 (Broward County) +251
    Starting line Locklin +44. 2.5% split their ticket. About 1,455 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct X013 (Broward County) +213
    Starting line Locklin +40. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,415 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct W016 (Broward County) +191
    Starting line Locklin +22. 2.0% split their ticket. About 2,111 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct W014 (Broward County) +151
    Starting line Locklin +23. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,615 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 46% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +1,953
    1,953 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Diaz-Balart today.
  • Mobilize +1,744
    At least 23,228 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Locklin's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +233
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Locklin's way.

Plus a 15.3-point national shift (32,245 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Locklin wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Diaz-Balart.
  2. In Precinct W009 (Broward County) and Precinct W018 (Broward County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 15.3 points toward Locklin's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    167 precincts, slope 1.024, R² 0.994, 29 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -56,418 to -7,764
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Locklin $198,600 · Diaz-Balart $2,538,703
  • Call program
    19,182 households, 57,546 dials, about 3,015 live conversations and 1,028 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-01 · Gay Valimont (D) vs. Jimmy Patronis (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.7-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find124,404
Call program$4,133

Where

  1. Precinct 98 (Escambia County) +131
    Starting line Valimont +54. 2.3% split their ticket. About 595 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 28 (Escambia County) +117
    Starting line Valimont +34. 2.6% split their ticket. About 807 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 14 (Escambia County) +98
    Starting line Valimont +66. 3.6% split their ticket. About 359 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 34 (Escambia County) +82
    Starting line Valimont +39. 2.7% split their ticket. About 512 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 103 (Escambia County) +80
    Starting line Valimont +35. 2.7% split their ticket. About 555 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 24% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +2,944
    2,944 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Patronis today.
  • Mobilize +765
    At least 5,856 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Valimont's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +340
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Valimont's way.

Plus a 40.7-point national shift (120,355 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Valimont wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Patronis.
  2. In Precinct 98 (Escambia County) and Precinct 28 (Escambia County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 40.7 points toward Valimont's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    188 precincts, slope 0.968, R² 0.996, 28 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -154,106 to -86,165
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Valimont $21,814 · Patronis $935,302
  • Call program
    8,773 households, 26,320 dials, about 1,379 live conversations and 470 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-02 · Amanda Marie Green (D) vs. Austin Rogers (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.4-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find63,645
Call program$9,199

Where

  1. Precinct 4 (Gadsden County) +189
    Starting line Green +64. 4.3% split their ticket. About 664 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 5 (Gadsden County) +176
    Starting line Green +75. 6.8% split their ticket. About 486 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 2305 (Leon County) +146
    Starting line Green +38. 3.0% split their ticket. About 801 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 1321 (Leon County) +133
    Starting line Green +48. 3.4% split their ticket. About 599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 2511 (Leon County) +133
    Starting line Green +41. 3.2% split their ticket. About 679 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,993
    3,993 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rogers today.
  • Mobilize +3,150
    At least 30,661 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Green's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +427
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Green's way.

Plus a 18.4-point national shift (56,074 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Green wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rogers.
  2. In Precinct 4 (Gadsden County) and Precinct 5 (Gadsden County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 18.4 points toward Green's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    323 precincts, slope 0.958, R² 0.997, 58 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -91,290 to -20,294
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Green $28,038 · Rogers $387,029
  • Call program
    27,508 households, 82,525 dials, about 4,324 live conversations and 1,474 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-03 · Seth Harp (D) vs. Kat Cammack (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 22.3-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find71,722
Call program$8,504

Where

  1. Precinct 59 (Alachua County) +285
    Starting line Harp +40. 1.7% split their ticket. About 1,982 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 48 (Alachua County) +267
    Starting line Harp +28. 2.1% split their ticket. About 2,673 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 5 (Alachua County) +257
    Starting line Harp +39. 0.7% split their ticket. About 1,873 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 7 (Alachua County) +210
    Starting line Harp +61. 0.9% split their ticket. About 987 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 44 (Alachua County) +187
    Starting line Harp +50. 1.4% split their ticket. About 1,039 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 32% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,003
    3,003 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cammack today.
  • Mobilize +4,020
    At least 29,748 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Harp's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +386
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Harp's way.

Plus a 22.3-point national shift (64,313 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Harp wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cammack.
  2. In Precinct 59 (Alachua County) and Precinct 48 (Alachua County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 22.3 points toward Harp's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    241 precincts, slope 0.956, R² 0.996, 42 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -97,863 to -31,005
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Harp $3,011 · Cammack $876,971
  • Call program
    25,432 households, 76,295 dials, about 3,998 live conversations and 1,363 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-05 · Rachel Grage (D) vs. John H. Rutherford (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 25.3-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find79,510
Call program$2,717

Where

  1. Precinct 408 (St. Johns County) +62
    Starting line Rutherford +34. 1.9% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 402 (St. Johns County) +59
    Starting line Rutherford +38. 2.1% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 406 (St. Johns County) +56
    Starting line Rutherford +35. 2.1% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 404 (St. Johns County) +49
    Starting line Rutherford +44. 4.2% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 403 (St. Johns County) +47
    Starting line Rutherford +45. 2.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 19% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +2,549
    2,549 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rutherford today.
  • Mobilize +31
    At least 674 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Grage's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +396
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Grage's way.

Plus a 25.3-point national shift (76,534 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Grage wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rutherford.
  2. The national environment moves about 25.3 points toward Grage's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    128 precincts, slope 1.025, R² 0.986, 20 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -111,862 to -41,188
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Grage $90,533 · Rutherford $268,730
  • Call program
    4,763 households, 14,289 dials, about 749 live conversations and 255 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-06 · Eric Yonce (D) vs. Randy Fine (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 31.2-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find106,760
Call program$4,270

Where

  1. Precinct 606 (Volusia County) +165
    Starting line Yonce +64. 3.2% split their ticket. About 699 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 603 (Volusia County) +96
    Starting line Yonce +35. 3.1% split their ticket. About 544 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 212 (Volusia County) +79
    Starting line Yonce +26. 2.3% split their ticket. About 688 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 607 (Volusia County) +67
    Starting line Yonce +32. 2.0% split their ticket. About 538 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 503 (Volusia County) +67
    Starting line Fine +26. 2.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,823
    3,823 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Fine today.
  • Mobilize +573
    At least 4,520 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Yonce's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +339
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Yonce's way.

Plus a 31.2-point national shift (102,025 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Yonce wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Fine.
  2. In Precinct 606 (Volusia County) and Precinct 603 (Volusia County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 31.2 points toward Yonce's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    217 precincts, slope 0.954, R² 0.986, 39 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -139,513 to -64,614
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Yonce $34,096 · Fine $1,191,059
  • Call program
    9,063 households, 27,190 dials, about 1,425 live conversations and 486 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-09 · Darren Soto (D) vs. Dan Green (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 20.2-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find56,300
Call program$7,039

Where

  1. Precinct 2002 (Osceola County) +236
    Starting line Soto +18. 3.6% split their ticket. About 2,576 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 2004 (Osceola County) +194
    Starting line Soto +19. 3.8% split their ticket. About 2,103 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 429 (Orange County) +135
    Starting line Soto +23. 3.6% split their ticket. About 1,325 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 427 (Orange County) +123
    Starting line Soto +15. 3.8% split their ticket. About 1,641 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 3009 (Osceola County) +117
    Starting line Soto +13. 2.2% split their ticket. About 1,829 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 28% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,446
    3,446 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Green today.
  • Mobilize +1,155
    At least 19,540 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Soto's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +355
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Soto's way.

Plus a 20.2-point national shift (51,344 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Soto wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Green.
  2. In Precinct 2002 (Osceola County) and Precinct 2004 (Osceola County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 20.2 points toward Soto's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    209 precincts, slope 0.906, R² 0.980, 41 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -80,627 to -21,888
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Soto $1,187,355 · Green $363,243
  • Call program
    18,938 households, 56,814 dials, about 2,977 live conversations and 1,015 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-11 · James Pericola (D) vs. Joe Strada (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.5-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find69,751
Call program$6,558

Where

  1. Precinct 205 (Orange County) +184
    Starting line Pericola +22. 2.6% split their ticket. About 1,910 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 119 (Orange County) +129
    Starting line Pericola +16. 2.6% split their ticket. About 1,838 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 422 (Orange County) +120
    Starting line Pericola +18. 2.3% split their ticket. About 1,488 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 124 (Orange County) +111
    Starting line Pericola +21. 2.0% split their ticket. About 1,138 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 145 (Lake County) +83
    Starting line Strada +18. 2.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +4,112
    4,112 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Strada today.
  • Mobilize +853
    At least 14,548 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pericola's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +419
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pericola's way.

Plus a 19.5-point national shift (64,366 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Pericola wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Strada.
  2. In Precinct 205 (Orange County) and Precinct 119 (Orange County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 19.5 points toward Pericola's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    160 precincts, slope 0.985, R² 0.988, 24 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -102,451 to -26,741
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Pericola $32,231 · Strada $2,248,903
  • Call program
    16,540 households, 49,619 dials, about 2,600 live conversations and 887 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-12 · Kimberly Overman (D) vs. Gus Bilirakis (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 15.8-point national wave.

Odds today1%
With the plan1%
Net votes to find49,876
Call program$5,465

Where

  1. Precinct 169 (Hillsborough County) +147
    Starting line Overman +27. 2.3% split their ticket. About 1,553 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 344 (Hillsborough County) +110
    Starting line Overman +51. 2.2% split their ticket. About 558 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 317 (Hillsborough County) +104
    Starting line Overman +52. 3.6% split their ticket. About 475 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 027 (Pasco County) +102
    Starting line Bilirakis +53. 5.8% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 563 (Hillsborough County) +96
    Starting line Overman +48. 2.1% split their ticket. About 522 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 22% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,358
    3,358 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Bilirakis today.
  • Mobilize +1,348
    At least 10,727 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Overman's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +473
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Overman's way.

Plus a 15.8-point national shift (44,698 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Overman wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Bilirakis.
  2. In Precinct 169 (Hillsborough County) and Precinct 344 (Hillsborough County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 15.8 points toward Overman's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    211 precincts, slope 0.926, R² 0.974, 33 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -77,285 to -12,071
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Overman $4,906 · Bilirakis $554,070
  • Call program
    12,968 households, 38,903 dials, about 2,039 live conversations and 695 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-15 · Robert People (D) vs. Laurel Lee (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.8-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find63,600
Call program$7,717

Where

  1. Precinct 305 (Hillsborough County) +219
    Starting line People +58. 1.8% split their ticket. About 999 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 562 (Hillsborough County) +210
    Starting line People +50. 1.5% split their ticket. About 1,169 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 325 (Hillsborough County) +187
    Starting line People +79. 3.4% split their ticket. About 599 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 321 (Hillsborough County) +178
    Starting line People +70. 2.3% split their ticket. About 660 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 309 (Hillsborough County) +152
    Starting line People +76. 2.1% split their ticket. About 521 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +4,020
    4,020 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lee today.
  • Mobilize +2,838
    At least 22,735 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where People's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +516
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean People's way.

Plus a 19.8-point national shift (56,226 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. People wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lee.
  2. In Precinct 305 (Hillsborough County) and Precinct 562 (Hillsborough County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 19.8 points toward People's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    197 precincts, slope 0.919, R² 0.993, 37 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -88,741 to -23,153
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    People $3,474 · Lee $1,960,682
  • Call program
    22,252 households, 66,756 dials, about 3,498 live conversations and 1,193 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-17 · Matthew Montavon (D) vs. Greg Steube (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.5-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find85,885
Call program$4,035

Where

  1. Precinct 115 (Sarasota County) +229
    Starting line Montavon +50. 1.9% split their ticket. About 1,173 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 202 (Lee County) +167
    Starting line Steube +31. 3.5% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 417 (Lee County) +139
    Starting line Montavon +28. 3.2% split their ticket. About 1,168 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 512 (Lee County) +91
    Starting line Steube +44. 3.2% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 535 (Sarasota County) +76
    Starting line Steube +22. 2.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 26% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,622
    3,622 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Steube today.
  • Mobilize +438
    At least 4,227 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Montavon's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +330
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Montavon's way.

Plus a 23.5-point national shift (81,495 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Montavon wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Steube.
  2. In Precinct 115 (Sarasota County) and Precinct 417 (Lee County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 23.5 points toward Montavon's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    197 precincts, slope 0.989, R² 0.964, 36 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -121,245 to -41,169
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Montavon $23,859 · Steube $2,083,868
  • Call program
    8,566 households, 25,697 dials, about 1,347 live conversations and 459 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-18 · Curtis Gibson (D) vs. Scott Franklin (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.5-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find52,378
Call program$6,220

Where

  1. Precinct 3006 (Osceola County) +351
    Starting line Gibson +26. 2.8% split their ticket. About 3,199 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 3007 (Osceola County) +194
    Starting line Gibson +36. 1.6% split their ticket. About 1,416 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 204 (Polk County) +144
    Starting line Gibson +70. 1.4% split their ticket. About 554 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 407 (Polk County) +140
    Starting line Gibson +37. 2.9% split their ticket. About 923 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 325 (Polk County) +132
    Starting line Gibson +69. 2.0% split their ticket. About 507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 35% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +2,678
    2,678 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Franklin today.
  • Mobilize +1,545
    At least 15,093 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Gibson's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +330
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Gibson's way.

Plus a 19.5-point national shift (47,825 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Gibson wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Franklin.
  2. In Precinct 3006 (Osceola County) and Precinct 3007 (Osceola County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 19.5 points toward Gibson's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    193 precincts, slope 0.927, R² 0.991, 32 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -75,379 to -19,385
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Gibson $1,452 · Franklin $960,764
  • Call program
    14,761 households, 44,282 dials, about 2,320 live conversations and 791 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-19 · Victor Arias (D) vs. Jim Schwartzel (R)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 34.0-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find109,850
Call program$3,617

Where

  1. Precinct 255 (Collier County) +149
    Starting line Schwartzel +32. 7.0% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 303 (Lee County) +141
    Starting line Schwartzel +37. 5.5% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 314 (Lee County) +114
    Starting line Schwartzel +42. 3.5% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 305 (Lee County) +106
    Starting line Schwartzel +40. 6.8% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 316 (Lee County) +98
    Starting line Schwartzel +32. 3.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 24% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +4,731
    4,731 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Schwartzel today.
  • Mobilize +0
    There are almost no precincts Arias's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  • Consolidate +211
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Arias's way.

Plus a 34-point national shift (104,908 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Arias wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Schwartzel.
  2. The national environment moves about 34.0 points toward Arias's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    118 precincts, slope 0.932, R² 0.934, 16 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -140,726 to -69,644
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Arias $19,203 · Schwartzel $181,899
  • Call program
    6,945 households, 20,836 dials, about 1,092 live conversations and 372 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-20 · Brent Andersen (R) vs. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 36.7-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find83,450
Call program$2,135

Where

  1. Precinct J011 (Broward County) +51
    Starting line Schultz +32. 2.3% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct N012 (Broward County) +48
    Starting line Schultz +22. 2.3% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct F004 (Broward County) +47
    Starting line Schultz +25. 2.6% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct J012 (Broward County) +45
    Starting line Schultz +34. 2.4% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct M006 (Broward County) +44
    Starting line Schultz +26. 2.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +2,414
    2,414 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Schultz today.
  • Mobilize +0
    There are almost no precincts Andersen's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  • Consolidate +208
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Andersen's way.

Plus a 36.7-point national shift (80,827 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Andersen wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Schultz.
  2. The national environment moves about 36.7 points toward Andersen's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    155 precincts, slope 0.968, R² 0.996, 28 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -106,527 to -55,433
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Andersen $40,623 · Schultz $1,861,373
  • Call program
    3,742 households, 11,225 dials, about 588 live conversations and 201 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-21 · James T. Martin (D) vs. Brian Mast (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 18.6-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find66,310
Call program$4,777

Where

  1. Precinct 17 (St. Lucie County) +182
    Starting line Martin +84. 1.1% split their ticket. About 604 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County) +132
    Starting line Martin +70. 1.8% split their ticket. About 491 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 18 (St. Lucie County) +102
    Starting line Martin +75. 4.2% split their ticket. About 347 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 19 (St. Lucie County) +99
    Starting line Martin +30. 2.3% split their ticket. About 813 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 24 (St. Lucie County) +92
    Starting line Martin +59. 2.4% split their ticket. About 401 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,486
    3,486 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Mast today.
  • Mobilize +1,058
    At least 7,592 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Martin's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +333
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Martin's way.

Plus a 18.6-point national shift (61,433 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Martin wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Mast.
  2. In Precinct 17 (St. Lucie County) and Precinct 14 (St. Lucie County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 18.6 points toward Martin's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    291 precincts, slope 0.994, R² 0.973, 71 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -99,272 to -22,884
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Martin $188,045 · Mast $2,928,458
  • Call program
    10,706 households, 32,118 dials, about 1,683 live conversations and 574 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-24 · Te Mayonna Brown (R) vs. Oliver G. Gilbert III (D)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.9-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find76,558
Call program$1,615

Where

  1. Precinct V009 (Broward County) +40
    Starting line Gilbert +16. 3.2% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct V015 (Broward County) +40
    Starting line Gilbert +7. 3.3% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct V028 (Broward County) +37
    Starting line Brown +2. 3.0% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct V008 (Broward County) +37
    Starting line Gilbert +44. 3.2% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct V017 (Broward County) +36
    Starting line Gilbert +9. 3.5% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +1,790
    1,790 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gilbert today.
  • Mobilize +1
    At least 14 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Brown's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +178
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Brown's way.

Plus a 40.9-point national shift (74,589 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Brown wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gilbert.
  2. The national environment moves about 40.9 points toward Brown's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    220 precincts, slope 0.981, R² 0.990, 32 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -95,617 to -53,614
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Brown $298,626 · Gilbert $229,093
  • Call program
    2,831 households, 8,493 dials, about 445 live conversations and 152 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-27 · Eliott Rodriguez (D) vs. Maria Elvira Salazar (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.9-point national wave.

Odds today2%
With the plan2%
Net votes to find35,036
Call program$2,699

Where

  1. Precinct 051 (Miami-Dade County) +59
    Starting line Salazar +13. 2.3% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 584 (Miami-Dade County) +40
    Starting line Rodriguez +17. 1.0% split their ticket. About 561 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 854 (Miami-Dade County) +40
    Starting line Salazar +14. 2.7% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 587 (Miami-Dade County) +37
    Starting line Rodriguez +7. 2.4% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 821 (Miami-Dade County) +37
    Starting line Salazar +14. 3.5% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +1,589
    1,589 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Salazar today.
  • Mobilize +167
    At least 2,939 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rodriguez's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +259
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rodriguez's way.

Plus a 13.9-point national shift (33,021 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Rodriguez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Salazar.
  2. In Precinct 584 (Miami-Dade County) and Precinct 803 (Miami-Dade County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 13.9 points toward Rodriguez's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    212 precincts, slope 0.981, R² 0.987, 36 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -60,312 to -5,510
  • Cash on hand, July 29
    Rodriguez $325,097 · Salazar $2,259,547
  • Call program
    4,731 households, 14,192 dials, about 744 live conversations and 254 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · FL-28 · Phil "Felipe" Ehr (D) vs. Carlos A. Gimenez (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 24.5-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find54,268
Call program$2,583

Where

  1. Precinct 5 (Monroe County) +53
    Starting line Ehr +22. 0.7% split their ticket. About 621 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 4 (Monroe County) +41
    Starting line Ehr +50. 1.4% split their ticket. About 203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 6 (Monroe County) +35
    Starting line Ehr +35. 1.1% split their ticket. About 224 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 913 (Miami-Dade County) +33
    Starting line Gimenez +32. 2.9% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 33 (Monroe County) +33
    Starting line Gimenez +51. 6.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +1,731
    1,731 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gimenez today.
  • Mobilize +188
    At least 2,525 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ehr's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +201
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ehr's way.

Plus a 24.5-point national shift (52,148 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Ehr wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gimenez.
  2. In Precinct 5 (Monroe County) and Precinct 4 (Monroe County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 24.5 points toward Ehr's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    206 precincts, slope 1.011, R² 0.989, 33 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -76,724 to -27,515
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Ehr $366,569 · Gimenez $692,873
  • Call program
    4,528 households, 13,583 dials, about 712 live conversations and 243 voter IDs, at $0.5705 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.