Upset Brief · FL-23 · Deborah Adeimy (R) vs. Lois Frankel (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 11.8-point national wave.

3%
odds today
5%
odds with the plan
31,951
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 5601 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Adeimy +39. 4.5% split their ticket. About 281 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +74
  2. 02
    Precinct 8645 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Adeimy +21. 2.0% split their ticket. About 670 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +62
  3. 03
    Precinct 8641 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Adeimy +14. 3.1% split their ticket. About 576 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +46
  4. 04
    Precinct 5603 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Adeimy +37. 4.9% split their ticket. About 166 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +43
  5. 05
    Precinct 3902 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Adeimy +14. 1.6% split their ticket. About 530 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +41
  6. 06
    Precinct 8843 (Palm Beach County)
    Starting line Adeimy +13. 1.4% split their ticket. About 622 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +39

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,613 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Frankel today.
    +2,613
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 8,983 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Adeimy's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +601
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Adeimy's way.
    +300

Plus a national shift of 11.8 points of margin (28,437 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Adeimy wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Frankel.
  2. In Precinct 8645 (Palm Beach County) and Precinct 5601 (Palm Beach County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 11.8 points toward Adeimy's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    371 precincts, R² 0.984, 66 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -56,470 to -584 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Adeimy $33,691 cash on hand; Frankel $1,212,162.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    10,397 households, 31,190 dials, about 1,634 live conversations: an estimated $4,639 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,639 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.