Upset Brief · FL-27 · Eliott Rodriguez (D) vs. Maria Elvira Salazar (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.9-point national wave.

2%
odds today
2%
odds with the plan
35,036
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 051 (Miami-Dade County)
    Starting line Salazar +13. 2.3% split their ticket.
    +59
  2. 02
    Precinct 584 (Miami-Dade County)
    Starting line Rodriguez +17. 1.0% split their ticket. About 561 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +40
  3. 03
    Precinct 854 (Miami-Dade County)
    Starting line Salazar +14. 2.7% split their ticket.
    +40
  4. 04
    Precinct 587 (Miami-Dade County)
    Starting line Rodriguez +7. 2.4% split their ticket.
    +37
  5. 05
    Precinct 821 (Miami-Dade County)
    Starting line Salazar +14. 3.5% split their ticket.
    +37
  6. 06
    Precinct 803 (Miami-Dade County)
    Starting line Rodriguez +21. 1.0% split their ticket. About 374 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +33

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,589 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Salazar today.
    +1,589
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 2,939 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rodriguez's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +167
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rodriguez's way.
    +259

Plus a national shift of 13.9 points of margin (33,021 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Rodriguez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Salazar.
  2. In Precinct 584 (Miami-Dade County) and Precinct 803 (Miami-Dade County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 13.9 points toward Rodriguez's side between now and November 3.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    212 precincts, R² 0.987, 36 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -60,312 to -5,510 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Rodriguez $325,097 cash on hand; Salazar $2,259,547.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    4,731 households, 14,192 dials, about 744 live conversations: an estimated $2,699 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $2,699 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.