Upset Brief · FL-28 · Phil "Felipe" Ehr (D) vs. Carlos A. Gimenez (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 24.5-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
54,268
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 5 (Monroe County)
    Starting line Ehr +22. 0.7% split their ticket. About 621 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +53
  2. 02
    Precinct 4 (Monroe County)
    Starting line Ehr +50. 1.4% split their ticket. About 203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +41
  3. 03
    Precinct 6 (Monroe County)
    Starting line Ehr +35. 1.1% split their ticket. About 224 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +35
  4. 04
    Precinct 913 (Miami-Dade County)
    Starting line Gimenez +32. 2.9% split their ticket.
    +33
  5. 05
    Precinct 33 (Monroe County)
    Starting line Gimenez +51. 6.2% split their ticket.
    +33
  6. 06
    Precinct 10 (Monroe County)
    Starting line Ehr +14. 2.5% split their ticket. About 393 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +30

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    1,731 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gimenez today.
    +1,731
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 2,525 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ehr's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +188
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ehr's way.
    +201

Plus a national shift of 24.5 points of margin (52,148 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Ehr wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gimenez.
  2. In Precinct 5 (Monroe County) and Precinct 4 (Monroe County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 24.5 points toward Ehr's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    206 precincts, R² 0.989, 33 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -76,724 to -27,515 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Ehr $366,569 cash on hand; Gimenez $692,873.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    4,528 households, 13,583 dials, about 712 live conversations: an estimated $2,583 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $2,583 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.