Upset Brief · FL-03 · Seth Harp (D) vs. Kat Cammack (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 22.3-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
71,722
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 24
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 59 (Alachua County)
    Starting line Harp +40. 1.7% split their ticket. About 1,982 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +285
  2. 02
    Precinct 48 (Alachua County)
    Starting line Harp +28. 2.1% split their ticket. About 2,673 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +267
  3. 03
    Precinct 5 (Alachua County)
    Starting line Harp +39. 0.7% split their ticket. About 1,873 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +257
  4. 04
    Precinct 7 (Alachua County)
    Starting line Harp +61. 0.9% split their ticket. About 987 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +210
  5. 05
    Precinct 44 (Alachua County)
    Starting line Harp +50. 1.4% split their ticket. About 1,039 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +187
  6. 06
    Precinct 27 (Alachua County)
    Starting line Harp +72. 0.8% split their ticket. About 685 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +185

The top 12 precincts carry 32% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,003 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Cammack today.
    +3,003
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 29,748 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Harp's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +4,020
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Harp's way.
    +386

Plus a national shift of 22.3 points of margin (64,313 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Harp wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Cammack.
  2. In Precinct 59 (Alachua County) and Precinct 48 (Alachua County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 22.3 points toward Harp's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    241 precincts, R² 0.996, 42 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -97,863 to -31,005 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29
    Harp $3,011 cash on hand; Cammack $876,971.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    25,432 households, 76,295 dials, about 3,998 live conversations: an estimated $8,504 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $8,504 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Florida races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Florida Division of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.