A long shot on the math: it takes a 25.3-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 408 (St. Johns County)

   Starting line Rutherford +34. 1.9% split their ticket.
   +62
2. 02
   Precinct 402 (St. Johns County)

   Starting line Rutherford +38. 2.1% split their ticket.
   +59
3. 03
   Precinct 406 (St. Johns County)

   Starting line Rutherford +35. 2.1% split their ticket.
   +56
4. 04
   Precinct 404 (St. Johns County)

   Starting line Rutherford +44. 4.2% split their ticket.
   +49
5. 05
   Precinct 403 (St. Johns County)

   Starting line Rutherford +45. 2.1% split their ticket.
   +47
6. 06
   Precinct 401 (St. Johns County)

   Starting line Rutherford +38. 1.9% split their ticket.
   +42

The top 12 precincts carry 19% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  2,549 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rutherford today.
  +2,549
• M
  Mobilize

  Few precincts give Grage's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +31
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +396

Plus a national shift of 25.3 points of margin (76,534 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Grage wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rutherford.
2. It would take a national shift of about 25.3 points toward Grage's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  128 precincts, R² 0.986, 20 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -111,862 to -41,188 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through July 29

  Grage $90,533 cash on hand; Rutherford $268,730.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  4,763 households, 14,289 dials, about 749 live conversations: an estimated $2,717 at published rates.