Upset Brief · KY-02 · Megan Wingfield (D) vs. Brett Guthrie (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.1-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
88,165
net votes to find
Brett Guthrie won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Alvaton (Warren County)
    Starting line Guthrie +48. 11.7% split their ticket.
    +102
  2. 02
    Glasgow Middle School (Barren County)
    Starting line Guthrie +47. 12.1% split their ticket.
    +96
  3. 03
    Cecilia (Hardin County)
    Starting line Guthrie +46. 20.5% split their ticket.
    +91
  4. 04
    Country Club (Hardin County)
    Starting line Guthrie +43. 17.0% split their ticket.
    +87
  5. 05
    Precinct 129 36 District (Jefferson County)
    Starting line Guthrie +26. 11.1% split their ticket.
    +83
  6. 06
    2nd District (Butler County)
    Starting line Guthrie +63. 10.1% split their ticket.
    +81

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    12,690 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Guthrie today.
    +12,690
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 2,902 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Wingfield's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +250
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Wingfield's way.
    +78

Plus a national shift of 32.1 points of margin (75,146 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Wingfield wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Guthrie.
  2. In Reservoir Hill (Warren County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 32.1 points toward Wingfield's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    421 precincts, R² 0.968, 44 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -102,723 to -47,101 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Wingfield $1,197 cash on hand; Guthrie $1,718,271.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    19,668 households, 59,004 dials, about 3,092 live conversations: an estimated $7,311 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 through 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.