Kentucky · 7 federal races · 37 days left

Every Kentucky race. From the other side.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

Kentucky's congressional districts are the 2022 map (HB 2), unchanged for 2026. The precinct math uses the 2024 House and presidential results, the 2023 races for governor and attorney general, and the 2022 U.S. Senate race; county-level absentee lines and small canvass adjustments are spread across each county's precincts.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.
7
underdog plans, built from precinct returns
148,213
net votes: the closest upset in Kentucky (Kentucky U.S. Senate)
37
days until November 3. Early voting opens October 29.
Pick a race

7 plans. One question each.

Kentucky U.S. Senate · open seat
How Charles Booker wins
148,213 net votes to find, most of them in Jefferson County and Fayette County.
See the path ›
KY-01 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Drew Williams
104,869 net votes to find, most of them in Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County) and Indian Hills (Franklin County).
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KY-02 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Megan Wingfield
88,476 net votes to find, most of them in Alvaton (Warren County) and Glasgow Middle School (Barren County).
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KY-03 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Maria Rodriguez
69,249 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 160 48 District (Jefferson County) and Precinct 173 48 District (Jefferson County).
See the path ›
KY-04 · open seat
What it would take for Melissa Strange
65,534 net votes to find, most of them in Park Hills (Kenton County) and Covington #2 (Kenton County).
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KY-05 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Ned Pillersdorf
102,821 net votes to find, most of them in Pulaski South 51 (Pulaski County) and Somerset Southeast (Pulaski County).
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KY-06 · open seat
What it would take for Zach Dembo
39,405 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct #2 (Montgomery County) and Precinct #3 (Montgomery County).
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Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Kentucky 2026 election guide.