Where a dollar moves a Kentucky race.

Where

1. Jefferson County +28,314
   Starting line Booker +31. 27,244 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 72,742 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
2. Fayette County +13,716
   Starting line Booker +34. 10,985 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 39,172 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
3. Kenton County +5,024
   Starting line Barr +4. 4,949 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 29,560 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
4. Daviess County +3,367
   Starting line Barr +13. 3,546 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 14,152 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
5. Warren County +3,310
   Starting line Barr +8. 3,276 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 26,080 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 47% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +139,228
  157,925 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Barr, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
• Mobilize +15,053
  At least 132,678 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Booker's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +1,233
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Booker's way.

What has to be true

1. Booker wins 44 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Barr.
2. In the precincts Booker's side carries in Jefferson County and Fayette County, 31 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 88 percent of what recent Kentucky results show is possible.
4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  3,487 precincts, slope 1.066, R² 0.963, 630 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -132,078 to 153,170
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Booker $309,623 · Barr $2,305,546
• Call program
  259,546 households, 778,637 dials, about 40,801 live conversations and 13,913 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct #2 (Montgomery County) +240
   Starting line Alvarado +40. 15.0% split their ticket.
2. Precinct #3 (Montgomery County) +216
   Starting line Alvarado +48. 14.4% split their ticket.
3. Precinct #1 (Montgomery County) +206
   Starting line Alvarado +37. 14.4% split their ticket.
4. Scott #3 (Scott County) +196
   Starting line Alvarado +34. 12.3% split their ticket.
5. Scott #1 (Scott County) +173
   Starting line Alvarado +32. 12.3% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +16,440
  16,440 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Alvarado today.
• Mobilize +2,177
  At least 21,308 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dembo's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +583
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dembo's way.

Plus a 7.9-point national shift (20,160 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Dembo wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Alvarado.
2. The national environment moves about 7.9 points toward Dembo's side between now and November 3.
3. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree), so the line is a weighted blend of official recent results. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  510 precincts, slope 0.870, R² 0.980, 83 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -50,520 to 10,459
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Dembo $491,275 · Alvarado $398,018
• Call program
  38,540 households, 115,619 dials, about 6,058 live conversations and 2,066 voter IDs, at $0.3095 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County) +302
   Starting line Comer +35. 10.1% split their ticket.
2. Indian Hills (Franklin County) +238
   Starting line Williams +22. 11.4% split their ticket. About 1,094 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. New Capital (Franklin County) +186
   Starting line Williams +53. 6.5% split their ticket. About 948 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Bald Knob (Franklin County) +180
   Starting line Comer +30. 16.2% split their ticket.
5. District 2 (Marion County) +164
   Starting line Comer +32. 12.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +13,066
  13,066 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Comer today.
• Mobilize +733
  At least 7,296 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Williams's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +69
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Williams's way.

Plus a 37-point national shift (90,884 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Williams wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Comer.
2. In New Capital (Franklin County) and Indian Hills (Franklin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 37.0 points toward Williams's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  539 precincts, slope 0.962, R² 0.988, 88 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -119,605 to -61,632
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Williams $20,182 · Comer $3,041,112
• Call program
  23,201 households, 69,602 dials, about 3,647 live conversations and 1,244 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Alvaton (Warren County) +102
   Starting line Guthrie +48. 11.7% split their ticket.
2. Glasgow Middle School (Barren County) +96
   Starting line Guthrie +47. 12.1% split their ticket.
3. Cecilia (Hardin County) +91
   Starting line Guthrie +46. 20.5% split their ticket.
4. Country Club (Hardin County) +87
   Starting line Guthrie +43. 17.0% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 129 36 District (Jefferson County) +83
   Starting line Guthrie +26. 11.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +12,690
  12,690 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Guthrie today.
• Mobilize +250
  At least 2,902 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Wingfield's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +78
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Wingfield's way.

Plus a 32.1-point national shift (75,146 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Wingfield wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Guthrie.
2. In Reservoir Hill (Warren County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 32.1 points toward Wingfield's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  421 precincts, slope 0.887, R² 0.968, 44 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -102,723 to -47,101
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Wingfield $1,197 · Guthrie $1,718,271
• Call program
  19,668 households, 59,004 dials, about 3,092 live conversations and 1,054 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 160 48 District (Jefferson County) +98
   Starting line Rodriguez +2. 9.9% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 173 48 District (Jefferson County) +89
   Starting line McGarvey +15. 11.6% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County) +83
   Starting line Rodriguez +27. 13.4% split their ticket. About 283 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 191 29 District (Jefferson County) +79
   Starting line Rodriguez +8. 11.5% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 159 29 District (Jefferson County) +78
   Starting line McGarvey +2. 9.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 7% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +11,236
  11,236 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McGarvey today.
• Mobilize +258
  At least 3,723 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rodriguez's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +123
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rodriguez's way.

Plus a 22.1-point national shift (57,631 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Rodriguez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McGarvey.
2. In Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 22.1 points toward Rodriguez's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  580 precincts, slope 0.950, R² 0.989, 111 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -88,489 to -27,053
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Rodriguez $15,672 · McGarvey $1,813,760
• Call program
  18,318 households, 54,953 dials, about 2,880 live conversations and 982 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Park Hills (Kenton County) +134
   Starting line Strange +29. 6.5% split their ticket. About 1,241 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Covington #2 (Kenton County) +128
   Starting line Strange +60. 4.2% split their ticket. About 488 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Grant County #2 (Grant County) +119
   Starting line Gallrein +51. 9.5% split their ticket.
4. Grant County #1 (Grant County) +119
   Starting line Gallrein +53. 8.9% split their ticket.
5. Ft Wright #1 (Kenton County) +111
   Starting line Strange +32. 3.1% split their ticket. About 754 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 9% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +12,102
  12,102 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gallrein today.
• Mobilize +653
  At least 7,480 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Strange's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +695
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Strange's way.

Plus a 20.6-point national shift (52,085 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Strange wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gallrein.
2. In Park Hills (Kenton County) and Covington #2 (Kenton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. It would take a national shift of about 20.6 points toward Strange's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  469 precincts, slope 1.040, R² 0.982, 95 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -82,355 to -22,060
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Strange $11,145 · Gallrein $179,309
• Call program
  23,233 households, 69,698 dials, about 3,652 live conversations and 1,245 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Pulaski South 51 (Pulaski County) +173
   Starting line Rogers +52. 12.9% split their ticket.
2. Somerset Southeast (Pulaski County) +154
   Starting line Rogers +39. 13.1% split their ticket.
3. Oakhill-Saline 11 (Pulaski County) +152
   Starting line Rogers +48. 16.8% split their ticket.
4. Keavy (Laurel County) +111
   Starting line Rogers +54. 12.1% split their ticket.
5. Caney Fork-Vaught 31 (Pulaski County) +109
   Starting line Rogers +46. 12.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +14,414
  14,414 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rogers today.
• Mobilize +16
  Few precincts give Pillersdorf's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
• Consolidate +77
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

Plus a 41.6-point national shift (88,327 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Pillersdorf wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rogers.
2. It would take a national shift of about 41.6 points toward Pillersdorf's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  806 precincts, slope 0.720, R² 0.873, 133 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -114,278 to -62,706
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Pillersdorf $91,275 · Rogers $874,716
• Call program
  20,180 households, 60,539 dials, about 3,172 live conversations and 1,082 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)