Where a dollar moves a Kentucky race.

Where

1. Jefferson County +28,316
   Starting line Booker +31. 27,244 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 72,742 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
2. Fayette County +13,718
   Starting line Booker +34. 10,985 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 39,172 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
3. Kenton County +5,024
   Starting line Barr +4. 4,949 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 29,558 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
4. Daviess County +3,367
   Starting line Barr +13. 3,546 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 14,152 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
5. Warren County +3,310
   Starting line Barr +8. 3,277 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 26,075 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 47% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +139,339
  Ticket splitters and the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 158,050 leaning Barr today.
• Mobilize +15,051
  At least 132,612 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Booker's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +1,234
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Booker's way.

What has to be true

1. Booker wins 44 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Barr.
2. In the precincts Booker's side carries in Jefferson County and Fayette County, 31 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 88 percent of what recent Kentucky results show is possible.
4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  3,487 precincts, slope 1.066, R² 0.963, 630 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -132,169 to 153,278
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Booker $309,623 · Barr $2,305,546
• Call program
  259,678 households, 779,035 dials, about 40,821 live conversations and 13,920 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct #2 (Montgomery County) +240
   Starting line Alvarado +40. 15.0% split their ticket.
2. Precinct #3 (Montgomery County) +216
   Starting line Alvarado +48. 14.4% split their ticket.
3. Precinct #1 (Montgomery County) +206
   Starting line Alvarado +37. 14.4% split their ticket.
4. Scott #3 (Scott County) +196
   Starting line Alvarado +34. 12.3% split their ticket.
5. Scott #1 (Scott County) +173
   Starting line Alvarado +32. 12.3% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 10% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +16,447
  16,447 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Alvarado today.
• Mobilize +2,177
  At least 21,308 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Dembo's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +584
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Dembo's way.

Plus a 8-point national shift (20,199 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Dembo wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Alvarado.
2. The national environment moves about 8.0 points toward Dembo's side between now and November 3.
3. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  510 precincts, slope 0.870, R² 0.980, 83 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -50,568 to 10,434
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Dembo $491,275 · Alvarado $398,018
• Call program
  38,549 households, 115,648 dials, about 6,060 live conversations and 2,066 voter IDs, at $0.3095 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Hendron #1 Extension (McCracken County) +302
   Starting line Comer +35. 10.1% split their ticket.
2. Indian Hills (Franklin County) +238
   Starting line Williams +22. 11.4% split their ticket. About 1,091 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. New Capital (Franklin County) +186
   Starting line Williams +53. 6.5% split their ticket. About 948 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Bald Knob (Franklin County) +181
   Starting line Comer +30. 16.2% split their ticket.
5. District 2 (Marion County) +164
   Starting line Comer +32. 12.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +13,079
  13,079 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Comer today.
• Mobilize +728
  At least 7,262 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Williams's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +69
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Williams's way.

Plus a 37-point national shift (90,993 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Williams wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Comer.
2. In New Capital (Franklin County) and Indian Hills (Franklin County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 37.0 points toward Williams's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  539 precincts, slope 0.962, R² 0.988, 88 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -119,749 to -61,706
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Williams $20,182 · Comer $3,041,112
• Call program
  23,196 households, 69,589 dials, about 3,646 live conversations and 1,243 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Alvaton (Warren County) +103
   Starting line Guthrie +48. 11.7% split their ticket.
2. Glasgow Middle School (Barren County) +96
   Starting line Guthrie +47. 12.1% split their ticket.
3. Cecilia (Hardin County) +91
   Starting line Guthrie +46. 20.5% split their ticket.
4. Country Club (Hardin County) +87
   Starting line Guthrie +43. 17.0% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 129 36 District (Jefferson County) +83
   Starting line Guthrie +26. 11.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +12,727
  12,727 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Guthrie today.
• Mobilize +250
  At least 2,899 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Wingfield's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +78
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Wingfield's way.

Plus a 32.1-point national shift (75,421 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Wingfield wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Guthrie.
2. In Reservoir Hill (Warren County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 32.1 points toward Wingfield's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  421 precincts, slope 0.887, R² 0.968, 44 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -103,063 to -47,305
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Wingfield $1,197 · Guthrie $1,718,271
• Call program
  19,717 households, 59,150 dials, about 3,099 live conversations and 1,057 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Precinct 160 48 District (Jefferson County) +98
   Starting line Rodriguez +2. 9.9% split their ticket.
2. Precinct 173 48 District (Jefferson County) +89
   Starting line McGarvey +15. 11.6% split their ticket.
3. Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County) +83
   Starting line Rodriguez +27. 13.4% split their ticket. About 283 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
4. Precinct 191 29 District (Jefferson County) +79
   Starting line Rodriguez +8. 11.5% split their ticket.
5. Precinct 159 29 District (Jefferson County) +78
   Starting line McGarvey +2. 9.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 7% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +11,236
  11,236 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McGarvey today.
• Mobilize +258
  At least 3,723 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Rodriguez's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +123
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Rodriguez's way.

Plus a 22.1-point national shift (57,631 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Rodriguez wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McGarvey.
2. In Precinct 133 37 District (Jefferson County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 22.1 points toward Rodriguez's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  580 precincts, slope 0.950, R² 0.989, 111 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -88,489 to -27,053
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Rodriguez $15,672 · McGarvey $1,813,760
• Call program
  18,318 households, 54,953 dials, about 2,880 live conversations and 982 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Park Hills (Kenton County) +134
   Starting line Strange +29. 6.5% split their ticket. About 1,241 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
2. Covington #2 (Kenton County) +128
   Starting line Strange +60. 4.2% split their ticket. About 488 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
3. Grant County #2 (Grant County) +119
   Starting line Gallrein +51. 9.5% split their ticket.
4. Grant County #1 (Grant County) +119
   Starting line Gallrein +53. 8.9% split their ticket.
5. Ft Wright #1 (Kenton County) +111
   Starting line Strange +32. 3.1% split their ticket. About 754 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 9% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +12,102
  12,102 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Gallrein today.
• Mobilize +653
  At least 7,480 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Strange's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +695
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Strange's way.

Plus a 20.6-point national shift (52,085 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Strange wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Gallrein.
2. In Park Hills (Kenton County) and Covington #2 (Kenton County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 20.6 points toward Strange's side between now and November 3.
4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  469 precincts, slope 1.040, R² 0.982, 95 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -82,355 to -22,060
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Strange $11,145 · Gallrein $179,309
• Call program
  23,233 households, 69,698 dials, about 3,652 live conversations and 1,245 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Pulaski South 51 (Pulaski County) +173
   Starting line Rogers +52. 12.9% split their ticket.
2. Somerset Southeast (Pulaski County) +154
   Starting line Rogers +39. 13.1% split their ticket.
3. Oakhill-Saline 11 (Pulaski County) +152
   Starting line Rogers +48. 16.8% split their ticket.
4. Keavy (Laurel County) +111
   Starting line Rogers +54. 12.1% split their ticket.
5. Caney Fork-Vaught 31 (Pulaski County) +109
   Starting line Rogers +46. 12.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 8% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +14,424
  14,424 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Rogers today.
• Mobilize +16
  At least 196 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Pillersdorf's side wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +77
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Pillersdorf's way.

Plus a 41.5-point national shift (88,303 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Pillersdorf wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Rogers.
2. The national environment moves about 41.5 points toward Pillersdorf's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  806 precincts, slope 0.720, R² 0.873, 133 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -114,260 to -62,679
• Cash on hand, June 30
  Pillersdorf $91,275 · Rogers $874,716
• Call program
  20,193 households, 60,580 dials, about 3,174 live conversations and 1,082 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)