Upset Brief · Kentucky U.S. Senate · Charles Booker (D) vs. Andy Barr (R)

Booker can win. The math closes using 88 percent of what history allows.

2%
odds today
53%
odds with the plan
148,213
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 29
Where
  1. 01
    Jefferson County
    Starting line Booker +31. 27,244 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 72,742 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +28,316
  2. 02
    Fayette County
    Starting line Booker +34. 10,985 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 39,172 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +13,718
  3. 03
    Kenton County
    Starting line Barr +4. 4,949 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 29,558 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +5,024
  4. 04
    Daviess County
    Starting line Barr +13. 3,546 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 14,152 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,367
  5. 05
    Warren County
    Starting line Barr +8. 3,277 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 26,075 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,310
  6. 06
    Madison County
    Starting line Barr +11. 3,311 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 15,317 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,272

The top 12 counties carry 47% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 158,050 leaning Barr today.
    +139,339
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 132,612 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Booker's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +15,051
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Booker's way.
    +1,234
What has to be true
  1. Booker wins 44 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Barr.
  2. In the precincts Booker's side carries in Jefferson County and Fayette County, 31 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 88 percent of what recent Kentucky results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    3,487 precincts, R² 0.963, 630 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -132,169 to 153,278 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Booker $309,623 cash on hand; Barr $2,305,546.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    259,678 households, 779,035 dials, about 40,821 live conversations: an estimated $71,385 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $71,385 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 through 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.