Upset Brief · Kentucky U.S. Senate · Charles Booker (D) vs. Andy Barr (R)

Booker can win. The plan uses 88 percent of what history allows.

2%
odds today
53%
odds with the plan
148,109
net votes to find
Andy Barr won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Jefferson County
    Starting line Booker +31. 27,244 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 72,742 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +28,314
  2. 02
    Fayette County
    Starting line Booker +34. 10,985 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 39,172 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +13,716
  3. 03
    Kenton County
    Starting line Barr +4. 4,949 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 29,560 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +5,024
  4. 04
    Daviess County
    Starting line Barr +13. 3,546 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 14,152 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,367
  5. 05
    Warren County
    Starting line Barr +8. 3,276 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 26,080 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,310
  6. 06
    Madison County
    Starting line Barr +11. 3,311 persuadable voters leaning Barr; 15,317 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,272

The top 12 counties carry 47% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    157,925 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Barr, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +139,228
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 132,678 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Booker's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +15,053
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Booker's way.
    +1,233
What has to be true
  1. Booker wins 44 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Barr.
  2. In the precincts Booker's side carries in Jefferson County and Fayette County, 31 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 88 percent of what recent Kentucky results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    3,487 precincts, R² 0.963, 630 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -132,078 to 153,170 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Booker $309,623 cash on hand; Barr $2,305,546.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    259,546 households, 778,637 dials, about 40,801 live conversations: an estimated $71,349 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $71,349 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Kentucky races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Kentucky State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 through 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.