Upset Brief · MD-07 · Scott Collier (R) vs. Kweisi Mfume (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 59.3-point national wave.

0%
odds today
0%
odds with the plan
119,857
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 22
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 015-021 (Baltimore County)
    Starting line Collier +44. 4.8% split their ticket. About 1,471 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +280
  2. 02
    Precinct 012-004 (Baltimore County)
    Starting line Collier +38. 7.1% split their ticket. About 958 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +175
  3. 03
    Precinct 027-066 (Baltimore City)
    Starting line Mfume +16. 33.9% split their ticket.
    +172
  4. 04
    Precinct 027-065 (Baltimore City)
    Starting line Mfume +27. 26.9% split their ticket.
    +169
  5. 05
    Precinct 015-022 (Baltimore County)
    Starting line Collier +50. 5.8% split their ticket. About 729 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +168
  6. 06
    Precinct 024-005 (Baltimore City)
    Starting line Mfume +54. 13.9% split their ticket.
    +155

The top 12 precincts carry 26% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,015 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Mfume today.
    +6,015
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 9,087 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Collier's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +915
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Collier's way.
    +301

Plus a national shift of 59.3 points of margin (112,625 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Collier wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Mfume.
  2. In Precinct 015-021 (Baltimore County) and Precinct 015-022 (Baltimore County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 59.3 points toward Collier's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    333 precincts, R² 0.943, 9 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -134,603 to -90,809 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Collier no FEC totals reported; Mfume $702,810.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    15,165 households, 45,494 dials, about 2,384 live conversations: an estimated $6,013 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,013 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Maryland races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.