The Political Group · Maryland 2026 · as of September 26, 2026

Where a dollar moves a Maryland race.

8 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall program
MD-06
Robin Ficker vs. April McClain Delaney
18% → 50%+32 pts16,394$12,731
42,852 households
Brief ›
MD-01
Dan Schwartz vs. Andy Harris
<1% → 17%+17 pts41,142$13,218
44,490 households
Brief ›
MD-02
Dave Wallace vs. Johnny Olszewski
<1% → 4%+4 pts53,509$11,925
38,531 households
Brief ›
MD-03
Berney Flowers vs. Sarah Elfreth
<1% → 2%+2 pts66,517$11,826
38,211 households
Brief ›
MD-04
George McDermott vs. Glenn Ivey
0% → 0%+0 pts127,943$2,687
5,160 households
Brief ›
MD-05
Chris Chaffee vs. Adrian Boafo
0% → <1%+0 pts92,875$10,891
33,832 households
Brief ›
MD-07
Scott Collier vs. Kweisi Mfume
0% → 0%+0 pts119,857$6,013
15,165 households
Brief ›
MD-08
Cheryl Riley vs. Jamie Raskin
0% → 0%+0 pts158,797$7,197
19,363 households
Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · MD-06 · Robin Ficker (R) vs. April McClain Delaney (D) · incumbent

Ficker can win. The math closes using 100 percent of what history allows.

Odds today18%
With the plan50%
Net votes to find16,394
Call program$12,731

Where

  1. Precinct 013-001 (Washington County) +309
    Starting line Ficker +42. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,887 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 018-002 (Frederick County) +256
    Starting line Ficker +22. 9.8% split their ticket. About 2,000 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 026-001 (Washington County) +243
    Starting line Ficker +26. 6.3% split their ticket. About 2,365 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 009-007 (Frederick County) +239
    Starting line Delaney +8. 12.8% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 015-002 (Frederick County) +227
    Starting line Ficker +28. 6.7% split their ticket. About 1,203 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +11,259
    11,259 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Delaney today.
  • Mobilize +4,605
    At least 37,944 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ficker's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +575
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ficker's way.

What has to be true

  1. Ficker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Delaney.
  2. In Precinct 013-001 (Washington County) and Precinct 026-001 (Washington County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 100 percent of what recent Maryland results show is possible.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    214 precincts, slope 0.962, R² 0.994, 52 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -31,492 to 31,163
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Ficker $401 · Delaney $307,611
  • Call program
    42,852 households, 128,556 dials, about 6,736 live conversations and 2,297 voter IDs, at $0.2971 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · MD-01 · Dan Schwartz (D) vs. Andy Harris (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 5.3-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan17%
Net votes to find41,142
Call program$13,218

Where

  1. Precinct 003-007 (Harford County) +586
    Starting line Harris +20. 10.1% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 003-006 (Harford County) +414
    Starting line Harris +22. 11.0% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 001-001 (Talbot County) +383
    Starting line Schwartz +20. 13.2% split their ticket. About 737 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 001-021 (Harford County) +352
    Starting line Schwartz +12. 6.4% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 004-002 (Queen Anne's County) +348
    Starting line Harris +14. 10.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +22,709
    Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 22,709 leaning Harris today.
  • Mobilize +1,471
    At least 15,201 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Schwartz's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,350
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Schwartz's way.

Plus a 5.3-point national shift (15,611 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Schwartz wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Harris.
  2. In Precinct 002-007 (Harford County) and Precinct 001-001 (Talbot County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 5.3 points toward Schwartz's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    298 precincts, slope 0.958, R² 0.987, 50 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -42,546 to 11,781
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Schwartz $72,575 · Harris $1,853,603
  • Call program
    44,490 households, 133,469 dials, about 6,994 live conversations and 2,385 voter IDs, at $0.2971 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · MD-02 · Dave Wallace (R) vs. Johnny Olszewski (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 13.1-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan4%
Net votes to find53,509
Call program$11,925

Where

  1. Precinct 008-001 (Carroll County) +333
    Starting line Wallace +31. 10.5% split their ticket. About 1,393 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 005-003 (Carroll County) +324
    Starting line Wallace +6. 14.4% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 003-007 (Baltimore County) +316
    Starting line Olszewski +11. 28.0% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 009-001 (Carroll County) +314
    Starting line Wallace +34. 8.8% split their ticket. About 1,289 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 006-002 (Carroll County) +286
    Starting line Wallace +38. 8.6% split their ticket. About 1,170 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +14,156
    14,156 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Olszewski today.
  • Mobilize +2,564
    At least 24,923 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Wallace's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +912
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Wallace's way.

Plus a 13.1-point national shift (35,876 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Wallace wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Olszewski.
  2. In Precinct 002-001 (Carroll County) and Precinct 009-001 (Carroll County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 13.1 points toward Wallace's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    229 precincts, slope 0.970, R² 0.959, 13 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -68,311 to -2,923
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Wallace $3,073 · Olszewski $614,275
  • Call program
    38,531 households, 115,593 dials, about 6,057 live conversations and 2,065 voter IDs, at $0.3095 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · MD-03 · Berney Flowers (R) vs. Sarah Elfreth (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 15.5-point national wave.

Odds today<1%
With the plan2%
Net votes to find66,517
Call program$11,826

Where

  1. Precinct 013-001 (Carroll County) +419
    Starting line Flowers +20. 12.2% split their ticket. About 1,993 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 005-010 (Howard County) +370
    Starting line Elfreth +35. 18.3% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 005-001 (Howard County) +324
    Starting line Elfreth +19. 16.1% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 014-005 (Carroll County) +307
    Starting line Flowers +29. 10.0% split their ticket. About 1,204 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 003-005 (Howard County) +292
    Starting line Elfreth +20. 16.0% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 17% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +18,175
    18,175 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Elfreth today.
  • Mobilize +1,336
    At least 16,155 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Flowers's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,006
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Flowers's way.

Plus a 15.5-point national shift (46,001 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Flowers wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Elfreth.
  2. In Precinct 013-001 (Carroll County) and Precinct 014-005 (Carroll County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 15.5 points toward Flowers's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    213 precincts, slope 0.977, R² 0.981, 42 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -81,402 to -10,037
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Flowers $2,016 · Elfreth $335,826
  • Call program
    38,211 households, 114,633 dials, about 6,007 live conversations and 2,048 voter IDs, at $0.3095 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · MD-04 · George McDermott (R) vs. Glenn Ivey (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 75.6-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find127,943
Call program$2,687

Where

  1. Precinct 010-005 (Prince George's County) +106
    Starting line Ivey +44. 11.1% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 005-023 (Montgomery County) +90
    Starting line Ivey +68. 7.5% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 005-019 (Montgomery County) +83
    Starting line Ivey +46. 9.6% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 005-012 (Montgomery County) +82
    Starting line Ivey +58. 8.2% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 010-013 (Prince George's County) +73
    Starting line Ivey +71. 5.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 21% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,611
    3,611 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Ivey today.
  • Mobilize +0
    There are almost no precincts McDermott's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  • Consolidate +90
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean McDermott's way.

Plus a 75.6-point national shift (124,243 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. McDermott wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Ivey.
  2. The national environment moves about 75.6 points toward McDermott's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    229 precincts, slope 0.978, R² 0.975, 41 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -143,371 to -105,260
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    McDermott n/a · Ivey $459,226
  • Call program
    5,160 households, 15,479 dials, about 811 live conversations and 277 voter IDs, at $0.5208 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · MD-05 · Chris Chaffee (R) vs. Adrian Boafo (D)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 29.2-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan<1%
Net votes to find92,875
Call program$10,891

Where

  1. Precinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County) +652
    Starting line Chaffee +40. 5.0% split their ticket. About 4,303 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County) +565
    Starting line Chaffee +40. 5.1% split their ticket. About 3,709 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 002-003 (Calvert County) +316
    Starting line Chaffee +18. 9.2% split their ticket. About 1,702 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 002-001 (St. Mary's County) +276
    Starting line Chaffee +23. 9.1% split their ticket. About 2,592 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 006-001 (St. Mary's County) +272
    Starting line Chaffee +34. 6.7% split their ticket. About 1,991 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +10,195
    10,195 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Boafo today.
  • Mobilize +2,420
    At least 27,420 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Chaffee's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +428
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Chaffee's way.

Plus a 29.2-point national shift (79,833 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Chaffee wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Boafo.
  2. In Precinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County) and Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 29.2 points toward Chaffee's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    224 precincts, slope 0.942, R² 0.995, 29 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -112,450 to -47,587
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Chaffee n/a · Boafo $91,867
  • Call program
    33,832 households, 101,496 dials, about 5,318 live conversations and 1,813 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · MD-07 · Scott Collier (R) vs. Kweisi Mfume (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 59.3-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find119,857
Call program$6,013

Where

  1. Precinct 015-021 (Baltimore County) +280
    Starting line Collier +44. 4.8% split their ticket. About 1,471 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 012-004 (Baltimore County) +175
    Starting line Collier +38. 7.1% split their ticket. About 958 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 027-066 (Baltimore City) +172
    Starting line Mfume +16. 33.9% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 027-065 (Baltimore City) +169
    Starting line Mfume +27. 26.9% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 015-022 (Baltimore County) +168
    Starting line Collier +50. 5.8% split their ticket. About 729 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 26% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +6,015
    6,015 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Mfume today.
  • Mobilize +915
    At least 9,087 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Collier's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +301
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Collier's way.

Plus a 59.3-point national shift (112,625 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Collier wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Mfume.
  2. In Precinct 015-021 (Baltimore County) and Precinct 015-022 (Baltimore County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 59.3 points toward Collier's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    333 precincts, slope 0.916, R² 0.943, 9 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -134,603 to -90,809
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Collier n/a · Mfume $702,810
  • Call program
    15,165 households, 45,494 dials, about 2,384 live conversations and 813 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · MD-08 · Cheryl Riley (R) vs. Jamie Raskin (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 54.0-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan0%
Net votes to find158,797
Call program$7,197

Where

  1. Precinct 013-038 (Montgomery County) +196
    Starting line Raskin +50. 13.2% split their ticket.
  2. Precinct 004-020 (Montgomery County) +185
    Starting line Raskin +50. 14.8% split their ticket.
  3. Precinct 007-023 (Montgomery County) +184
    Starting line Raskin +63. 14.3% split their ticket.
  4. Precinct 007-019 (Montgomery County) +168
    Starting line Raskin +67. 12.2% split their ticket.
  5. Precinct 004-016 (Montgomery County) +151
    Starting line Raskin +51. 12.4% split their ticket.

The top 12 precincts carry 14% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +13,312
    13,312 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Raskin today.
  • Mobilize +0
    There are almost no precincts Riley's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  • Consolidate +503
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Riley's way.

Plus a 54-point national shift (144,981 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Riley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Raskin.
  2. The national environment moves about 54.0 points toward Riley's side between now and November 3.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    199 precincts, slope 0.974, R² 0.946, 37 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -176,280 to -113,087
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Riley $1,806 · Raskin $7,893,447
  • Call program
    19,363 households, 58,090 dials, about 3,044 live conversations and 1,038 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.