Maryland · 8 federal races · 37 days left
Every Maryland race. From the other side.
The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.
Maryland's congressional districts are the 2022 map (SB 1012). A 2026 attempt to redraw them passed the House of Delegates but never came to a vote in the Senate, so the lines are unchanged. There is no U.S. Senate race in Maryland in 2026.
See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.
8
underdog plans, built from precinct returns
16,394
net votes: the closest upset in Maryland (MD-06)
37
days until November 3. Early voting opens October 22.
Pick a race
8 plans. One question each.
MD-01 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Dan Schwartz
41,142 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 003-007 (Harford County) and Precinct 003-006 (Harford County).
See the path ›
MD-02 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Dave Wallace
53,509 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 008-001 (Carroll County) and Precinct 005-003 (Carroll County).
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MD-03 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Berney Flowers
66,517 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 013-001 (Carroll County) and Precinct 005-010 (Howard County).
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MD-04 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for George McDermott
127,943 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 010-005 (Prince George's County) and Precinct 005-023 (Montgomery County).
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MD-05 · open seat
What it would take for Chris Chaffee
92,875 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 005-001 (St. Mary's County) and Precinct 004-001 (St. Mary's County).
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MD-06 · vs. incumbent
How Robin Ficker wins
16,394 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 013-001 (Washington County) and Precinct 018-002 (Frederick County).
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MD-07 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Scott Collier
119,857 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 015-021 (Baltimore County) and Precinct 012-004 (Baltimore County).
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MD-08 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Cheryl Riley
158,797 net votes to find, most of them in Precinct 013-038 (Montgomery County) and Precinct 004-020 (Montgomery County).
See the path ›
Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Maryland State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Maryland 2026 election guide.