A long shot on the math: it takes a 42.9-point national wave.

1. 01
   Detroit

   Starting line McKinney +82. 3.2% split their ticket.
   +1,747
2. 02
   Taylor

   Starting line McKinney +10. 4.3% split their ticket.
   +636
3. 03
   Allen Park

   Starting line McKinney +6. 4.8% split their ticket.
   +414
4. 04
   Southgate

   Starting line McKinney +11. 5.0% split their ticket.
   +388
5. 05
   Lincoln Park

   Starting line McKinney +18. 4.7% split their ticket.
   +376
6. 06
   Wyandotte

   Starting line McKinney +8. 4.5% split their ticket.
   +334

The top 12 cities and townships carry 88% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  4,996 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McKinney today.
  +4,996
• M
  Mobilize

  Few cities and townships give Nykoriak's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +28
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +936

Plus a national shift of 42.9 points of margin (105,292 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Nykoriak wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McKinney.
2. It would take a national shift of about 42.9 points toward Nykoriak's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  429 precincts, R² 0.989, 74 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -133,870 to -76,887 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15

  Nykoriak no FEC totals reported; McKinney $142,854.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  8,935 households, 26,804 dials, about 1,405 live conversations: an estimated $4,209 at published rates.