Michigan · 14 federal races · 36 days left

Every Michigan race. From the other side.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

Michigan's congressional districts are the 2021 Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission map, unchanged for 2026. The U.S. Senate seat is open: Gary Peters is not running for re-election.

Michigan's results here come from the Bureau of Elections precinct files, reconciled to the certified county canvass. The plans are built city by city and township by township; small county canvass adjustments are spread over each county's communities so totals match the certified results. Detroit's absentee counting boards are counted within Detroit.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.
14
underdog plans, built from precinct returns
4,254
net votes: the closest upset in Michigan (MI-10)
36
days until November 3. Absentee voting is open now.
Pick a race

14 plans. One question each.

Michigan U.S. Senate · open seat
How Mike Rogers wins
116,706 net votes to find, most of them in Macomb County and Wayne County.
See the path ›
MI-01 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Callie Barr
75,130 net votes to find, most of them in Marquette and Traverse City (Grand Traverse County).
See the path ›
MI-02 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Ben Ambrose
100,270 net votes to find, most of them in Mount Pleasant and Caledonia Township (Kent County).
See the path ›
MI-03 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Terri DeBoer
36,411 net votes to find, most of them in Grand Rapids and Byron Township (Kent County).
See the path ›
MI-04 · vs. incumbent
How Sean McCann wins
6,921 net votes to find, most of them in Portage and Kalamazoo.
See the path ›
MI-05 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Christian Vukasovich
87,818 net votes to find, most of them in Bedford Township (Monroe County) and Jackson.
See the path ›
MI-06 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Heather Smiley
108,687 net votes to find, most of them in Canton Township (Wayne County) and Brownstown Township (Wayne County).
See the path ›
MI-07 · vs. incumbent
How William Lawrence wins
7,577 net votes to find, most of them in Lansing (Ingham County) and East Lansing (Ingham County).
See the path ›
MI-08 · vs. incumbent
How Thomas J. Smith wins
21,130 net votes to find, most of them in Saginaw Township (Saginaw County) and Grand Blanc Township (Genesee County).
See the path ›
MI-09 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Ray Pooley
118,333 net votes to find, most of them in Macomb Township (Macomb County) and Chesterfield Township (Macomb County).
See the path ›
MI-10 · open seat
How Christina Hines wins
4,254 net votes to find, most of them in Rochester Hills and St. Clair Shores.
See the path ›
MI-11 · open seat
What it would take for Ethan Baker
79,890 net votes to find, most of them in Troy and Waterford Township (Oakland County).
See the path ›
MI-12 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for James D. Hooper
125,325 net votes to find, most of them in Dearborn and Livonia.
See the path ›
MI-13 · open seat
What it would take for Taras "T.P." Nykoriak
111,252 net votes to find, most of them in Detroit and Taylor.
See the path ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Michigan 2026 election guide.