Upset Brief · NV-01 · Carrie Buck (R) vs. Dina Titus (D), incumbent

Buck gets within 4,839 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.1-point national shift finishes it.

26%
odds today
38%
odds with the plan
10,384
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 7601 (Clark County)
    Starting line Buck +27. 2.1% split their ticket. About 785 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +104
  2. 02
    Precinct 7562 (Clark County)
    Starting line Buck +34. 2.0% split their ticket. About 571 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +101
  3. 03
    Precinct 7553 (Clark County)
    Starting line Buck +24. 2.7% split their ticket. About 644 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +98
  4. 04
    Precinct 7545 (Clark County)
    Starting line Buck +38. 2.4% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +85
  5. 05
    Precinct 7604 (Clark County)
    Starting line Buck +24. 2.6% split their ticket. About 625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +82
  6. 06
    Precinct 5037 (Clark County)
    Starting line Buck +28. 2.2% split their ticket. About 547 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +78

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,379 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Titus today.
    +3,379
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 16,259 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Buck's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,114
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Buck's way.
    +1,052

Plus a national shift of 2.1 points of margin (4,839 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Buck wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Titus.
  2. In Precinct 7601 (Clark County) and Precinct 7562 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 2.1 points toward Buck's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    241 precincts, R² 0.986, 54 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -30,936 to 21,587 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Buck $653,588 cash on hand; Titus $1,337,525.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    17,956 households, 53,867 dials, about 2,823 live conversations: an estimated $6,674 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,674 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Nevada races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Nevada Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.