The Political Group · Nevada 2026 · as of September 27, 2026

Where a dollar moves a Nevada race.

4 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall program
NV-02
Teresa Benitez-Thompson vs. David Flippo
50% → 66%+16 pts6,272$5,759
13,666 households
Brief ›
NV-04
Cody Whipple vs. Steven Horsford
32% → 47%+15 pts7,640$7,296
21,039 households
Brief ›
NV-01
Carrie Buck vs. Dina Titus
26% → 38%+12 pts10,384$6,674
17,956 households
Brief ›
NV-03
Marty O'Donnell vs. Susie Lee
38% → 47%+9 pts5,594$5,462
12,961 households
Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · NV-02 · Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) vs. David Flippo (R)

Benitez-Thompson can win. The plan uses 28 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%
With the plan66%
Net votes to find6,272
Call program$5,759

Where

  1. Reno-Verdi 3018 (Washoe County) +220
    Starting line Benitez-Thompson +51. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,299 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Reno-Verdi 3011 (Washoe County) +175
    Starting line Benitez-Thompson +47. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,115 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Reno-Verdi 5000 (Washoe County) +172
    Starting line Benitez-Thompson +52. 3.0% split their ticket. About 984 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Reno-Verdi 4002 (Washoe County) +150
    Starting line Benitez-Thompson +50. 3.1% split their ticket. About 901 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Reno-Verdi 1000 (Washoe County) +147
    Starting line Benitez-Thompson +49. 4.0% split their ticket. About 892 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +4,545
    16,053 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Flippo, plus the 6 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  • Mobilize +1,563
    At least 55,947 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Benitez-Thompson's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +477
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Benitez-Thompson's way.

What has to be true

  1. Benitez-Thompson wins 14 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Flippo.
  2. In Reno-Verdi 3018 (Washoe County) and Reno-Verdi 3011 (Washoe County), 10 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 28 percent of what recent Nevada results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    513 precincts, slope 0.969, R² 0.989, 72 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -19,154 to 32,566
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Benitez-Thompson $140,607 · Flippo $117,883
  • Call program
    13,666 households, 40,997 dials, about 2,148 live conversations and 732 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NV-04 · Cody Whipple (R) vs. Steven Horsford (D) · incumbent

Whipple gets within 930 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.4-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today32%
With the plan47%
Net votes to find7,640
Call program$7,296

Where

  1. Precinct 5530 (Clark County) +186
    Starting line Whipple +33. 0.9% split their ticket. About 1,506 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 2473 (Clark County) +153
    Starting line Whipple +75. 1.8% split their ticket. About 503 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Pahrump 31 (Nye County) +132
    Starting line Whipple +45. 3.3% split their ticket. About 579 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 2726 (Clark County) +114
    Starting line Whipple +62. 1.9% split their ticket. About 450 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 2776 (Clark County) +105
    Starting line Whipple +31. 1.9% split their ticket. About 724 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,605
    3,605 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Horsford today.
  • Mobilize +2,288
    At least 20,951 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Whipple's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +816
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Whipple's way.

Plus a 0.4-point national shift (930 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Whipple wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Horsford.
  2. In Precinct 5530 (Clark County) and Precinct 2473 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 0.4 points toward Whipple's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    318 precincts, slope 1.042, R² 0.993, 68 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -27,580 to 25,502
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Whipple $285,221 · Horsford $1,496,222
  • Call program
    21,039 households, 63,118 dials, about 3,307 live conversations and 1,128 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NV-01 · Carrie Buck (R) vs. Dina Titus (D) · incumbent

Buck gets within 4,839 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.1-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today26%
With the plan38%
Net votes to find10,384
Call program$6,674

Where

  1. Precinct 7601 (Clark County) +104
    Starting line Buck +27. 2.1% split their ticket. About 785 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 7562 (Clark County) +101
    Starting line Buck +34. 2.0% split their ticket. About 571 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 7553 (Clark County) +98
    Starting line Buck +24. 2.7% split their ticket. About 644 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 7545 (Clark County) +85
    Starting line Buck +38. 2.4% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 7604 (Clark County) +82
    Starting line Buck +24. 2.6% split their ticket. About 625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,379
    3,379 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Titus today.
  • Mobilize +1,114
    At least 16,259 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Buck's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +1,052
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Buck's way.

Plus a 2.1-point national shift (4,839 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Buck wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Titus.
  2. In Precinct 7601 (Clark County) and Precinct 7562 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 2.1 points toward Buck's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    241 precincts, slope 1.124, R² 0.986, 54 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -30,936 to 21,587
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Buck $653,588 · Titus $1,337,525
  • Call program
    17,956 households, 53,867 dials, about 2,823 live conversations and 963 voter IDs, at $0.3717 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · NV-03 · Marty O'Donnell (R) vs. Susie Lee (D) · incumbent

O'Donnell gets within 1,289 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.5-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today38%
With the plan47%
Net votes to find5,594
Call program$5,462

Where

  1. Precinct 3740 (Clark County) +84
    Starting line O'Donnell +11. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,269 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  2. Precinct 6728 (Clark County) +80
    Starting line O'Donnell +22. 2.9% split their ticket. About 656 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  3. Precinct 6610 (Clark County) +63
    Starting line O'Donnell +15. 2.1% split their ticket. About 840 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  4. Precinct 3715 (Clark County) +61
    Starting line O'Donnell +38. 1.7% split their ticket. About 362 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
  5. Precinct 3363 (Clark County) +51
    Starting line O'Donnell +11. 3.1% split their ticket. About 552 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +3,187
    3,187 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lee today.
  • Mobilize +709
    At least 11,240 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where O'Donnell's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +410
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean O'Donnell's way.

Plus a 0.5-point national shift (1,289 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. O'Donnell wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lee.
  2. In Precinct 6728 (Clark County) and Precinct 3740 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 0.5 points toward O'Donnell's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    250 precincts, slope 1.060, R² 0.980, 52 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -30,922 to 28,804
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    O'Donnell $2,409,434 · Lee $3,689,228
  • Call program
    12,961 households, 38,883 dials, about 2,037 live conversations and 695 voter IDs, at $0.4214 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Nevada Secretary of State precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.