Nevada · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

How Carrie Buck wins.

Titus starts 4.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Buck within 4,839 votes; a 2.1-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Precinct 7601 (Clark County), Precinct 7562 (Clark County) and Precinct 7553 (Clark County).

10,384
net votes between Buck and a win
36
days to election day. Mail voting opens October 5.
4.6 pts
Titus lead, our starting line from recent results
In short

Buck gets within 4,839 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.1-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today26%
Odds with the plan38%
Net votes to find10,384
WherePrecinct 7601 (Clark County), Precinct 7562 (Clark County), Precinct 7553 (Clark County)
Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Titus +4.6. Carrie Buck needs 10,384 net votes. Odds 26% today, 38% with the plan.
The number

113,790 votes.

That is half of the 227,579 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Buck stands today, and what is missing:

105,273 Carrie Buck baseline
115,657 Dina Titus baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

26% today. 38% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Buck wins in
38%
of 20,000 simulated elections
With no plan
26%
tieBuck loses by 46,516wins by 36,895
How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%
The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Buck short by 4,749.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade
3,379
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,379

Who. 3,379 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Titus today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Buck needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Titus.

Mobilize
1,114
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 16,259

Who. At least 16,259 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Buck's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate
1,052
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,005

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Buck's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 5,545 net votes against a gap of 10,384. Still 4,839 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 2.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 18% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Carson CityChurchill CountyClark County: 5,546 net votes in the planDouglas CountyElko CountyEsmeralda CountyEureka CountyHumboldt CountyLander CountyLincoln CountyLyon CountyMineral CountyNye CountyPershing CountyStorey CountyWashoe CountyWhite Pine CountyClark
Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset
  1. 01
    Precinct 7601 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +27. 2.1% split their ticket. About 785 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +104
  2. 02
    Precinct 7562 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +34. 2.0% split their ticket. About 571 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +101
  3. 03
    Precinct 7553 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +24. 2.7% split their ticket. About 644 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +98
  4. 04
    Precinct 7545 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +38. 2.4% split their ticket. About 419 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +85
  5. 05
    Precinct 7604 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +24. 2.6% split their ticket. About 625 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +82
  6. 06
    Precinct 5037 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +28. 2.2% split their ticket. About 547 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +78
  7. 07
    Precinct 5024 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +26. 3.1% split their ticket. About 542 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +76
  8. 08
    Precinct 5023 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +25. 3.1% split their ticket. About 579 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +74
  9. 09
    Precinct 7352 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +18. 2.2% split their ticket. About 772 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +73
  10. 10
    Precinct 7611 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +15. 2.0% split their ticket. About 855 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +73
  11. 11
    Precinct 5556 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +28. 2.3% split their ticket. About 490 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +72
  12. 12
    Precinct 7592 (Clark County)mobilize
    Starting line Buck +13. 1.9% split their ticket. About 1,083 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +69
What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 7601 (Clark County) carries the most.

Precinct 7601 (Clark County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 104. It sits at Buck +27 on our starting line, and 2.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 7562 (Clark County) is a turnout target.

Buck's side leads Precinct 7562 (Clark County) by about 34 points on our starting line, and it cast about 571 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 63 votes there.

Precinct 5024 (Clark County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 5024 (Clark County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Titus had $1.34 million in cash on hand to Buck's $654K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Buck's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

-100-100-80-80-60-60-40-40-20-2000+20+20+40+40+60+60+80+80Buck's side, President 2024 margin (points)U.S. House 2024 margin (points)
Precincts
241
Slope
1.124
R²
0.986
Residual SD
2.6 pts
Crossover precincts
54

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Buck's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Voting starts October 5.

  1. Now to October 9
    Find them

    Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Buck, with Titus, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.

  2. October 10 to 16
    Persuade

    Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,379 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.

  3. October 17 to 30
    Bank the ballots

    Every active voter is mailed a ballot starting the week of October 5, and early in-person voting runs October 17 through October 30. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7. Chase every supporter's ballot from the day it arrives until it comes back, and move anyone who has not mailed it to early voting while it is open.

  4. October 31 to November 2
    Turn them out

    The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 16,259 of them live where Buck is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7; drop boxes close at 7 p.m. on Election Day. Voters can register and vote in person on Election Day.

  5. November 3
    Election day

    Polls and vote centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and Nevada offers same-day registration at the polls. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest vote center or drop box in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 2.3 points; Rosen carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 7.0 points; Sisolak carried the 2022 governor's race by 5.0 points.

  1. Buck wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Titus.
  2. In Precinct 7601 (Clark County) and Precinct 7562 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 2.1 points toward Buck's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The work

2,823 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 53,867 dials to 17,956 households, before the last ballot is cast.

18K
households on the target list
54K
dials across three attempts
2,823
live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,674 at our published rates: 17,956 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Carrie Buck (R)

Nevada state senator for the Henderson-area 5th District since 2020 and president of the Pinecrest Foundation, which raises scholarship money; a former teacher and principal who led the Pinecrest Academy charter network, she holds a doctorate from Nova Southeastern University.

Cash on hand $653,588 and $1,775,558 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Favorite · incumbent

Dina Titus (D)

U.S. representative for Nevada's 1st District since 2013; a UNLV political science professor emerita, she served two decades in the Nevada Senate and led its Democratic caucus from 1993 to 2008.

Cash on hand $1,337,525 and $1,537,358 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Also on the ballot

Bobby Khan (Ind)

Former auto dealer who moved to Las Vegas in 2023 and is making his first run for public office, appearing on the ballot as Afzal "Bobby" Khan.

Cash on hand $2,972 and $85,873 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Also on the ballot

Steven St John (Ind)

Hospital chaplain running as a No Political Party candidate for the Las Vegas-area 1st District.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

  1. September 27, 2026
    Underdog plan published

    Starting line: Titus +4.6. Carrie Buck needs 10,384 net votes. Odds 26% today, 38% with the plan.

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Questions

Can Carrie Buck win Nevada's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 5,545 net votes; the gap is 10,384. The rest would take a 2.1-point national shift.

Where are the votes Carrie Buck needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 7601 (Clark County), Precinct 7562 (Clark County), Precinct 7553 (Clark County), Precinct 7545 (Clark County), Precinct 7604 (Clark County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Carrie Buck need to persuade?

About 1,690 voters who lean Dina Titus today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,379 persuadable voters leaning Dina Titus.

When are ballots mailed in Nevada in 2026?

Nevada mails a ballot to every active registered voter, starting the week of October 5, 2026, and early in-person voting runs October 17 through October 30. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7; drop boxes close at 7 p.m. on Election Day. The in-person and mail registration deadline is October 6, and Nevada offers same-day registration at the polls.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Nevada Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Nevada Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.

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