Upset Brief · NV-02 · Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D) vs. David Flippo (R)

Benitez-Thompson can win. The plan uses 28 percent of what history allows.

50%
odds today
66%
odds with the plan
6,272
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Reno-Verdi 3018 (Washoe County)
    Starting line Benitez-Thompson +51. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,299 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +220
  2. 02
    Reno-Verdi 3011 (Washoe County)
    Starting line Benitez-Thompson +47. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,115 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +175
  3. 03
    Reno-Verdi 5000 (Washoe County)
    Starting line Benitez-Thompson +52. 3.0% split their ticket. About 984 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +172
  4. 04
    Reno-Verdi 4002 (Washoe County)
    Starting line Benitez-Thompson +50. 3.1% split their ticket. About 901 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +150
  5. 05
    Reno-Verdi 1000 (Washoe County)
    Starting line Benitez-Thompson +49. 4.0% split their ticket. About 892 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +147
  6. 06
    Reno-Verdi 1036 (Washoe County)
    Starting line Benitez-Thompson +55. 3.9% split their ticket. About 677 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +124

The top 12 precincts carry 25% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    16,053 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Flippo, plus the 6 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +4,545
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 55,947 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Benitez-Thompson's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,563
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Benitez-Thompson's way.
    +477
What has to be true
  1. Benitez-Thompson wins 14 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Flippo.
  2. In Reno-Verdi 3018 (Washoe County) and Reno-Verdi 3011 (Washoe County), 10 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 28 percent of what recent Nevada results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    513 precincts, R² 0.989, 72 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -19,154 to 32,566 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Benitez-Thompson $140,607 cash on hand; Flippo $117,883.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    13,666 households, 40,997 dials, about 2,148 live conversations: an estimated $5,759 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,759 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Nevada races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Nevada Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.