How Teresa Benitez-Thompson wins.
A true toss-up between Benitez-Thompson and Flippo: the 2 head-to-head 2026 polls between the two finalists average within one point. In a tied race, the plan aims for a 2-point cushion: 6,272 net votes, most of them in Reno-Verdi 3018 (Washoe County), Reno-Verdi 3011 (Washoe County) and Reno-Verdi 5000 (Washoe County).
Benitez-Thompson can win. The plan uses 28 percent of what history allows.
156,514 votes.
That is half of the 313,027 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Benitez-Thompson stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a tie (the 2 head-to-head 2026 polls between the two finalists average within one point), applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. In a tied race the plan aims for a 2-point cushion. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
50% today. 66% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 16,053 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Flippo, plus the 6 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Benitez-Thompson needs to win 14 percent of the ones now leaning Flippo.
Who. At least 55,947 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Benitez-Thompson's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Benitez-Thompson's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 6,585 net votes against a gap of 6,272. That is a win.
12 precincts carry 25% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+220Reno-Verdi 3018 (Washoe County)mobilizeStarting line Benitez-Thompson +51. 4.5% split their ticket. About 1,299 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+175Reno-Verdi 3011 (Washoe County)mobilizeStarting line Benitez-Thompson +47. 4.6% split their ticket. About 1,115 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+172Reno-Verdi 5000 (Washoe County)mobilizeStarting line Benitez-Thompson +52. 3.0% split their ticket. About 984 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+150Reno-Verdi 4002 (Washoe County)mobilizeStarting line Benitez-Thompson +50. 3.1% split their ticket. About 901 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+147Reno-Verdi 1000 (Washoe County)mobilizeStarting line Benitez-Thompson +49. 4.0% split their ticket. About 892 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+124Reno-Verdi 1036 (Washoe County)mobilizeStarting line Benitez-Thompson +55. 3.9% split their ticket. About 677 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+117Sparks 7415 (Washoe County)persuadeStarting line Flippo +17. 5.0% split their ticket.
- 08+108Reno-Verdi 3005 (Washoe County)persuadeStarting line Benitez-Thompson +31. 6.0% split their ticket.
- 09+102Reno-Verdi 2027 (Washoe County)persuadeStarting line Benitez-Thompson +21. 5.6% split their ticket.
- 10+101Reno-Verdi 5014 (Washoe County)persuadeStarting line Benitez-Thompson +24. 5.2% split their ticket.
- 11+99Reno-Verdi 8205 (Washoe County)persuadeStarting line Benitez-Thompson +3. 4.9% split their ticket.
- 12+97Reno-Verdi 8200 (Washoe County)persuadeStarting line Flippo +2. 6.2% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Reno-Verdi 3018 (Washoe County) carries the most.
Reno-Verdi 3018 (Washoe County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 220. It sits at Benitez-Thompson +51 on our starting line, and 4.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Reno-Verdi 3011 (Washoe County) is a turnout target.
Benitez-Thompson's side leads Reno-Verdi 3011 (Washoe County) by about 47 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,115 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 170 votes there.
Reno-Verdi 8200 (Washoe County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Reno-Verdi 8200 (Washoe County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Benitez-Thompson has the cash edge.
As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Benitez-Thompson had $141K in cash on hand to Flippo's $118K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Benitez-Thompson's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 513
- Slope
- 0.969
- R²
- 0.989
- Residual SD
- 3.2 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 72
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Benitez-Thompson's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 5.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Benitez-Thompson, with Flippo, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 10 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,545 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 17 to 30Bank the ballots
Every active voter is mailed a ballot starting the week of October 5, and early in-person voting runs October 17 through October 30. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7. Chase every supporter's ballot from the day it arrives until it comes back, and move anyone who has not mailed it to early voting while it is open.
- October 31 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 55,947 of them live where Benitez-Thompson is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7; drop boxes close at 7 p.m. on Election Day. Voters can register and vote in person on Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and Nevada offers same-day registration at the polls. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest vote center or drop box in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 13.9 points; Brown carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 8.9 points; Lombardo carried the 2022 governor's race by 13.9 points.
- Benitez-Thompson wins 14 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Flippo.
- In Reno-Verdi 3018 (Washoe County) and Reno-Verdi 3011 (Washoe County), 10 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- No national wave is required. The plan uses 28 percent of what recent Nevada results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
2,148 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 40,997 dials to 13,666 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,759 at our published rates: 13,666 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D)
Reno licensed clinical social worker who represented Washoe County's Assembly District 27 from 2010 to 2022 and served as Assembly majority leader; most recently she was chief of staff to Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford.
Cash on hand $140,607 and $257,087 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
David Flippo (R)
Retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel and financial adviser who spent a decade in the oil industry on maintenance planning for BP in Alaska; he moved from Las Vegas to Reno in 2026 and won the Republican nomination with President Trump's endorsement.
Cash on hand $117,883 and $2,275,392 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Lynn Chapman (IAP)
Treasurer of the Independent American Party of Nevada and a conservative activist, running as the party's nominee for the Northern Nevada seat.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Flippo +0.0. Teresa Benitez-Thompson needs 6,272 net votes. Odds 50% today, 66% with the plan.
Questions
Can Teresa Benitez-Thompson win Nevada's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?
Yes. The race starts tied, so Teresa Benitez-Thompson wins with any net gain. The plan aims for a 2-point cushion of 6,272 net votes, and recent Nevada results show about 23,258 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan builds that full cushion.
Where are the votes Teresa Benitez-Thompson needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Reno-Verdi 3018 (Washoe County), Reno-Verdi 3011 (Washoe County), Reno-Verdi 5000 (Washoe County), Reno-Verdi 4002 (Washoe County), Reno-Verdi 1000 (Washoe County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Teresa Benitez-Thompson need to persuade?
About 2,272 voters who lean David Flippo today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 14 percent of the 16,053 persuadable voters leaning David Flippo.
When are ballots mailed in Nevada in 2026?
Nevada mails a ballot to every active registered voter, starting the week of October 5, 2026, and early in-person voting runs October 17 through October 30. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7; drop boxes close at 7 p.m. on Election Day. The in-person and mail registration deadline is October 6, and Nevada offers same-day registration at the polls.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Nevada Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Nevada Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Nevada Secretary of State, elections
- Washoe County Registrar of Voters
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: GBAO (D) (2026-08-31 to 2026-09-03)
- Poll: Strategies 360 (2026-08-22 to 2026-08-26)
- Poll: Wedgewood Polls (2026-07-09 to 2026-07-12)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Nevada's 2nd congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Nevada's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026
- The Nevada Independent: Does Teresa Benitez-Thompson stand a chance in deep red Northern Nevada?