Upset Brief · NV-03 · Marty O'Donnell (R) vs. Susie Lee (D), incumbent

O'Donnell gets within 1,289 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.5-point national shift finishes it.

38%
odds today
47%
odds with the plan
5,594
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 3740 (Clark County)
    Starting line O'Donnell +11. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,269 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +84
  2. 02
    Precinct 6728 (Clark County)
    Starting line O'Donnell +22. 2.9% split their ticket. About 656 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +80
  3. 03
    Precinct 6610 (Clark County)
    Starting line O'Donnell +15. 2.1% split their ticket. About 840 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +63
  4. 04
    Precinct 3715 (Clark County)
    Starting line O'Donnell +38. 1.7% split their ticket. About 362 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +61
  5. 05
    Precinct 3363 (Clark County)
    Starting line O'Donnell +11. 3.1% split their ticket. About 552 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +51
  6. 06
    Precinct 6512 (Clark County)
    Starting line O'Donnell +30. 1.9% split their ticket. About 301 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +47

The top 12 precincts carry 15% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,187 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lee today.
    +3,187
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 11,240 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where O'Donnell's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +709
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean O'Donnell's way.
    +410

Plus a national shift of 0.5 points of margin (1,289 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. O'Donnell wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lee.
  2. In Precinct 6728 (Clark County) and Precinct 3740 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 0.5 points toward O'Donnell's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    250 precincts, R² 0.980, 52 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -30,922 to 28,804 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    O'Donnell $2,409,434 cash on hand; Lee $3,689,228.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    12,961 households, 38,883 dials, about 2,037 live conversations: an estimated $5,462 at published rates.
For the campaign

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For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Nevada races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Nevada Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.