How Marty O'Donnell wins.
Lee starts 2.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets O'Donnell within 1,289 votes; a 0.5-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Precinct 3740 (Clark County), Precinct 6728 (Clark County) and Precinct 6610 (Clark County).
O'Donnell gets within 1,289 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.5-point national shift finishes it.
128,476 votes.
That is half of the 256,950 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where O'Donnell stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
38% today. 47% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 3,187 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Lee today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. O'Donnell needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Lee.
Who. At least 11,240 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where O'Donnell's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean O'Donnell's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 4,306 net votes against a gap of 5,594. Still 1,288 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 0.5 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 15% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+84Precinct 3740 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line O'Donnell +11. 2.7% split their ticket. About 1,269 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+80Precinct 6728 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line O'Donnell +22. 2.9% split their ticket. About 656 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+63Precinct 6610 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line O'Donnell +15. 2.1% split their ticket. About 840 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+61Precinct 3715 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line O'Donnell +38. 1.7% split their ticket. About 362 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+51Precinct 3363 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line O'Donnell +11. 3.1% split their ticket. About 552 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+47Precinct 6512 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line O'Donnell +30. 1.9% split their ticket. About 301 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+44Precinct 1346 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line O'Donnell +12. 2.6% split their ticket. About 475 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+43Precinct 3709 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line O'Donnell +17. 2.6% split their ticket. About 714 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+42Precinct 3757 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line O'Donnell +32. 2.8% split their ticket. About 267 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+42Precinct 3373 (Clark County)persuadeStarting line O'Donnell +3. 2.9% split their ticket.
- 11+41Precinct 3364 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line O'Donnell +21. 1.8% split their ticket. About 397 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+41Precinct 1751 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line O'Donnell +40. 2.0% split their ticket. About 209 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 3740 (Clark County) carries the most.
Precinct 3740 (Clark County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 84. It sits at O'Donnell +11 on our starting line, and 2.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 6728 (Clark County) is a turnout target.
O'Donnell's side leads Precinct 6728 (Clark County) by about 22 points on our starting line, and it cast about 656 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 49 votes there.
Precinct 3363 (Clark County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 3363 (Clark County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
The money is close.
As of June 30, 2026, Lee had $3.69 million in cash on hand to O'Donnell's $2.41 million. A race this close on money is decided on voter contact.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where O'Donnell's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 250
- Slope
- 1.060
- R²
- 0.980
- Residual SD
- 1.7 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 52
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: O'Donnell's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 5.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with O'Donnell, with Lee, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 10 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,187 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 17 to 30Bank the ballots
Every active voter is mailed a ballot starting the week of October 5, and early in-person voting runs October 17 through October 30. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7. Chase every supporter's ballot from the day it arrives until it comes back, and move anyone who has not mailed it to early voting while it is open.
- October 31 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 11,240 of them live where O'Donnell is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7; drop boxes close at 7 p.m. on Election Day. Voters can register and vote in person on Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and Nevada offers same-day registration at the polls. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest vote center or drop box in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 0.7 points; Rosen carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 4.0 points; Sisolak carried the 2022 governor's race by 3.9 points.
- O'Donnell wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Lee.
- In Precinct 6728 (Clark County) and Precinct 3740 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 0.5 points toward O'Donnell's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
2,037 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 38,883 dials to 12,961 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,462 at our published rates: 12,961 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Marty O'Donnell (R)
Composer and sound designer best known for scoring Bungie's Halo and Destiny video game franchises and co-owner of a video game company; he won the Republican nomination with President Trump's endorsement.
Cash on hand $2,409,434 and $3,870,605 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Susie Lee (D)
U.S. representative for Nevada's 3rd District since 2019 and the House Democratic Caucus' battleground leadership representative; an Ohio native, she previously led the dropout-prevention nonprofit Communities In Schools in Nevada.
Cash on hand $3,689,228 and $4,401,421 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Jon Kamerath (IAP)
Nurse and Sunday school teacher who serves as a national committeeman for the Independent American Party of Nevada.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Lee +2.2. Marty O'Donnell needs 5,594 net votes. Odds 38% today, 47% with the plan.
Questions
Can Marty O'Donnell win Nevada's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,306 net votes; the gap is 5,594. The rest would take a 0.5-point national shift.
Where are the votes Marty O'Donnell needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 3740 (Clark County), Precinct 6728 (Clark County), Precinct 6610 (Clark County), Precinct 3715 (Clark County), Precinct 3363 (Clark County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Marty O'Donnell need to persuade?
About 1,594 voters who lean Susie Lee today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,187 persuadable voters leaning Susie Lee.
When are ballots mailed in Nevada in 2026?
Nevada mails a ballot to every active registered voter, starting the week of October 5, 2026, and early in-person voting runs October 17 through October 30. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7; drop boxes close at 7 p.m. on Election Day. The in-person and mail registration deadline is October 6, and Nevada offers same-day registration at the polls.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Nevada Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Nevada Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Nevada Secretary of State, elections
- Clark County Election Department
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Nevada's 3rd congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2026