Upset Brief · NV-04 · Cody Whipple (R) vs. Steven Horsford (D), incumbent

Whipple gets within 930 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.4-point national shift finishes it.

32%
odds today
47%
odds with the plan
7,640
net votes to find
36
days left; voting starts October 5
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 5530 (Clark County)
    Starting line Whipple +33. 0.9% split their ticket. About 1,506 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +186
  2. 02
    Precinct 2473 (Clark County)
    Starting line Whipple +75. 1.8% split their ticket. About 503 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +153
  3. 03
    Pahrump 31 (Nye County)
    Starting line Whipple +45. 3.3% split their ticket. About 579 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +132
  4. 04
    Precinct 2726 (Clark County)
    Starting line Whipple +62. 1.9% split their ticket. About 450 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +114
  5. 05
    Precinct 2776 (Clark County)
    Starting line Whipple +31. 1.9% split their ticket. About 724 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +105
  6. 06
    Pahrump 19 (Nye County)
    Starting line Whipple +40. 2.5% split their ticket. About 524 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +103

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    3,605 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Horsford today.
    +3,605
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 20,951 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Whipple's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,288
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Whipple's way.
    +816

Plus a national shift of 0.4 points of margin (930 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Whipple wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Horsford.
  2. In Precinct 5530 (Clark County) and Precinct 2473 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 0.4 points toward Whipple's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    318 precincts, R² 0.993, 68 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -27,580 to 25,502 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Whipple $285,221 cash on hand; Horsford $1,496,222.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    21,039 households, 63,118 dials, about 3,307 live conversations: an estimated $7,296 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,296 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Nevada races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Nevada Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.