How Cody Whipple wins.
Horsford starts 3.4 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Whipple within 930 votes; a 0.4-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Precinct 5530 (Clark County), Precinct 2473 (Clark County) and Pahrump 31 (Nye County).
Whipple gets within 930 votes on campaign work alone. A 0.4-point national shift finishes it.
113,930 votes.
That is half of the 227,858 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Whipple stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
32% today. 47% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 3,605 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Horsford today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Whipple needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Horsford.
Who. At least 20,951 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Whipple's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Whipple's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 6,709 net votes against a gap of 7,640. Still 931 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 0.4 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 20% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+186Precinct 5530 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +33. 0.9% split their ticket. About 1,506 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+153Precinct 2473 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +75. 1.8% split their ticket. About 503 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+132Pahrump 31 (Nye County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +45. 3.3% split their ticket. About 579 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 04+114Precinct 2726 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +62. 1.9% split their ticket. About 450 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+105Precinct 2776 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +31. 1.9% split their ticket. About 724 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 06+103Pahrump 19 (Nye County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +40. 2.5% split their ticket. About 524 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 07+95Precinct 2465 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +25. 3.2% split their ticket. About 706 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+94Smoky Valley 35 (Nye County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +77. 2.9% split their ticket. About 335 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 09+91Precinct 2644 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +36. 2.2% split their ticket. About 512 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 10+85Pahrump 20 (Nye County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +32. 2.9% split their ticket. About 533 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 11+84Precinct 2055 (Clark County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +23. 2.7% split their ticket. About 708 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+84Precinct 34 (Nye County)mobilizeStarting line Whipple +25. 3.4% split their ticket. About 674 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Precinct 5530 (Clark County) carries the most.
Precinct 5530 (Clark County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 186. It sits at Whipple +33 on our starting line, and 0.9 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Precinct 2473 (Clark County) is a turnout target.
Whipple's side leads Precinct 2473 (Clark County) by about 75 points on our starting line, and it cast about 503 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 130 votes there.
Precinct 34 (Nye County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 34 (Nye County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 3.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Horsford had $1.50 million in cash on hand to Whipple's $285K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Whipple's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 318
- Slope
- 1.042
- R²
- 0.993
- Residual SD
- 2.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 68
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Whipple's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 5.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Whipple, with Horsford, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 10 to 16Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,605 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 17 to 30Bank the ballots
Every active voter is mailed a ballot starting the week of October 5, and early in-person voting runs October 17 through October 30. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7. Chase every supporter's ballot from the day it arrives until it comes back, and move anyone who has not mailed it to early voting while it is open.
- October 31 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 20,951 of them live where Whipple is favored. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7; drop boxes close at 7 p.m. on Election Day. Voters can register and vote in person on Election Day.
- November 3Election day
Polls and vote centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., and Nevada offers same-day registration at the polls. The last calls go to identified supporters whose ballots have not come back, with their nearest vote center or drop box in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 2.3 points; Rosen carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 6.8 points; Sisolak carried the 2022 governor's race by 3.1 points.
- Whipple wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Horsford.
- In Precinct 5530 (Clark County) and Precinct 2473 (Clark County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 0.4 points toward Whipple's side between now and November 3.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
3,307 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 63,118 dials to 21,039 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,296 at our published rates: 21,039 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Cody Whipple (R)
Rancher and digital communications small business owner who splits his time between Las Vegas and Hiko, where his family has lived for generations.
Cash on hand $285,221 and $884,687 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Steven Horsford (D)
U.S. representative for Nevada's 4th District, first elected in 2012, and the first African American to represent Nevada in Congress; he chaired the Congressional Black Caucus from 2023 to 2025 and was the first African American majority leader of the Nevada Senate.
Cash on hand $1,496,222 and $3,350,563 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Russell Best (IAP)
Retired businessman and U.S. Navy veteran running as the Independent American Party nominee.
William Johnson (Ind)
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Horsford +3.4. Cody Whipple needs 7,640 net votes. Odds 32% today, 47% with the plan.
Questions
Can Cody Whipple win Nevada's 4th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 6,709 net votes; the gap is 7,640. The rest would take a 0.4-point national shift.
Where are the votes Cody Whipple needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 5530 (Clark County), Precinct 2473 (Clark County), Pahrump 31 (Nye County), Precinct 2726 (Clark County), Precinct 2776 (Clark County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Cody Whipple need to persuade?
About 1,802 voters who lean Steven Horsford today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 3,605 persuadable voters leaning Steven Horsford.
When are ballots mailed in Nevada in 2026?
Nevada mails a ballot to every active registered voter, starting the week of October 5, 2026, and early in-person voting runs October 17 through October 30. Mailed ballots count if postmarked by November 3 and received by 5 p.m. on November 7; drop boxes close at 7 p.m. on Election Day. The in-person and mail registration deadline is October 6, and Nevada offers same-day registration at the polls.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Nevada Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Nevada Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Nevada Secretary of State, elections
- Clark County Election Department
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Nevada's 4th congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Nevada's 4th Congressional District election, 2026