Upset Brief · NC-01 · Laurie Buckhout (R) vs. Don Davis (D), incumbent

Buckhout can win. The math closes using 44 percent of what history allows.

23%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
10,781
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 15
Where
  1. 01
    Grantham 2B (Craven County)
    Starting line Buckhout +5. 12.7% split their ticket.
    +339
  2. 02
    Havelock (Craven County)
    Starting line Buckhout +10. 9.2% split their ticket.
    +318
  3. 03
    Bogue (Carteret County)
    Starting line Buckhout +38. 14.1% split their ticket. About 712 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +305
  4. 04
    Trent Woods (Craven County)
    Starting line Buckhout +17. 16.8% split their ticket.
    +298
  5. 05
    Rocky Mount Winstead (Nash County)
    Starting line Davis +24. 10.4% split their ticket.
    +293
  6. 06
    Newport 2 (Carteret County)
    Starting line Buckhout +40. 12.2% split their ticket. About 923 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +281

The top 12 precincts carry 29% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 20,468 leaning Davis today.
    +8,943
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 48,925 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Buckhout's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +2,037
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Buckhout's way.
    +340
What has to be true
  1. Buckhout wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Davis.
  2. In Newport 2 (Carteret County) and Coopers (Nash County), 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 44 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    294 precincts, R² 0.995, 57 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -23,488 to 24,969 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Buckhout $1,829,661 cash on hand; Davis $3,570,366.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    22,866 households, 68,599 dials, about 3,595 live conversations: an estimated $7,930 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,930 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.