North Carolina · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

How Laurie Buckhout wins.

Davis starts 3.8 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Buckhout needs 10,781 net votes, and the math closes using 44 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Grantham 2B (Craven County), Havelock (Craven County) and Bogue (Carteret County).

10,781

net votes between Buckhout and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 15.

3.8 pts

Davis lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Buckhout can win. The math closes using 44 percent of what history allows.

Odds today23%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find10,781

WhereGrantham 2B (Craven County), Havelock (Craven County), Bogue (Carteret County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Davis +3.8. Laurie Buckhout needs 10,781 net votes. Odds 23% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

143,922 votes.

That is half of the 287,842 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Buckhout stands today, and what is missing:

136,307 Laurie Buckhout baseline

147,088 Don Davis baseline

Starting line: Davis +3.8 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

23% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Buckhout wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

23%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves44%

The plan on this page sits at 44%. Median outcome at this setting: Buckhout by 605.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

8,943

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 20,468

Who. Ticket splitters and the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 20,468 leaning Davis today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Buckhout needs to win 22 percent of the ones now leaning Davis.

Mobilize

2,037

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 48,925

Who. At least 48,925 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Buckhout's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

340

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,226

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Buckhout's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,320 net votes against a gap of 10,781. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 29% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Grantham 2B (Craven County)persuade
Starting line Buckhout +5. 12.7% split their ticket.
+339
02
Havelock (Craven County)persuade
Starting line Buckhout +10. 9.2% split their ticket.
+318
03
Bogue (Carteret County)persuade
Starting line Buckhout +38. 14.1% split their ticket. About 712 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+305
04
Trent Woods (Craven County)persuade
Starting line Buckhout +17. 16.8% split their ticket.
+298
05
Rocky Mount Winstead (Nash County)persuade
Starting line Davis +24. 10.4% split their ticket.
+293
06
Newport 2 (Carteret County)persuade
Starting line Buckhout +40. 12.2% split their ticket. About 923 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+281
07
Coopers (Nash County)persuade
Starting line Buckhout +44. 10.2% split their ticket. About 724 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+279
08
Emerald Isle (Carteret County)persuade
Starting line Buckhout +18. 12.2% split their ticket.
+253
09
Cape Carteret/Cedar Point (Carteret County)persuade
Starting line Buckhout +32. 12.1% split their ticket.
+234
10
West New Bern (Craven County)persuade
Starting line Davis +10. 9.9% split their ticket.
+220
11
Morehead 4 (Carteret County)persuade
Starting line Buckhout +25. 13.9% split their ticket.
+213
12
Morehead 3 (Carteret County)persuade
Starting line Buckhout +19. 13.4% split their ticket.
+207

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Grantham 2B (Craven County) carries the most.

Grantham 2B (Craven County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 339. It sits at Buckhout +5 on our starting line, and 12.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Newport 2 (Carteret County) is a turnout race.

Buckhout's side leads Newport 2 (Carteret County) by about 40 points on our starting line, and it cast about 923 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 121 votes there.

Trent Woods (Craven County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Trent Woods (Craven County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 16.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The money is close.

As of June 30, 2026, Davis had $3.57 million in cash on hand to Buckhout's $1.83 million. A race this close on money is decided on voter contact.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Buckhout's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 294
Slope: 0.968
R²: 0.995
Residual SD: 2.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 57

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Buckhout's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 15.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Buckhout, with Davis, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 14
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 8,943 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 15 to 24
Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 48,925 of them live where Buckhout is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 11.5 points; Stein carried the 2024 governor's race by 2.7 points; Budd carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 13.2 points.

Buckhout wins 22 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Davis.
In Newport 2 (Carteret County) and Coopers (Nash County), 15 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 44 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

3,595 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 68,599 dials to 22,866 households, before the last ballot is cast.

23K

households on the target list

69K

dials across three attempts

3,595

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,930 at our published rates: 22,866 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Laurie Buckhout (R)

A retired U.S. Army colonel who served 26 years, including command of a battalion task force in Iraq in 2003, she founded the cyber and electronic warfare firm Corvus Consulting and served as acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy in 2025. She lives in Edenton and holds degrees from James Madison University and Webster University.

Cash on hand $1,829,661 and $3,677,045 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Don Davis (D)

U.S. representative for the 1st District since 2023, he served in the North Carolina Senate (2009 to 2011 and 2013 to 2023) and as mayor of Snow Hill (2001 to 2008). A U.S. Air Force Academy graduate and former Air Force captain, he holds a doctorate in education from East Carolina University, where he taught.

Cash on hand $3,570,366 and $4,287,386 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Tom Bailey (L)

A U.S. Army veteran (1968 to 1971) and University of North Carolina Wilmington graduate (1993), he is a longtime Libertarian organizer and former chair of the Guilford County Libertarian Party.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Davis +3.8. Laurie Buckhout needs 10,781 net votes. Odds 23% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Laurie Buckhout win North Carolina's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Laurie Buckhout needs 10,781 net votes, and recent North Carolina results show about 25,908 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 44 percent of that.

Where are the votes Laurie Buckhout needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Grantham 2B (Craven County), Havelock (Craven County), Bogue (Carteret County), Trent Woods (Craven County), Rocky Mount Winstead (Nash County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Laurie Buckhout need to persuade?

About 4,472 voters who lean Don Davis today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 22 percent of the 20,468 persuadable voters leaning Don Davis.

When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?

One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.