Upset Brief · NC-10 · Ashley Bell (D) vs. Pat Harrigan (R), incumbent

Bell gets within 10,928 votes on campaign work alone. A 4.0-point national shift finishes it.

<1%
odds today
25%
odds with the plan
45,604
net votes to find
Pat Harrigan won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Davidson 1-B (Iredell County)
    Starting line Harrigan +35. 14.1% split their ticket.
    +828
  2. 02
    Coddle Creek 3 (Iredell County)
    Starting line Harrigan +19. 10.9% split their ticket.
    +588
  3. 03
    Fallstown (Iredell County)
    Starting line Harrigan +39. 10.1% split their ticket.
    +525
  4. 04
    Westport (Lincoln County)
    Starting line Harrigan +31. 13.2% split their ticket.
    +476
  5. 05
    Davidson 2-B (Iredell County)
    Starting line Harrigan +21. 11.7% split their ticket.
    +448
  6. 06
    Coddle Creek 1 (Iredell County)
    Starting line Harrigan +23. 11.2% split their ticket.
    +384

The top 12 precincts carry 16% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    28,565 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Harrigan, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +28,565
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 34,539 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bell's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +5,374
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Bell's way.
    +738

Plus a national shift of 4 points of margin (10,928 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Bell wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Harrigan.
  2. In Sims Recreation Center (Forsyth County) and Arts Council Theater (Forsyth County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 4.0 points toward Bell's side between now and November 3.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    187 precincts, R² 0.998, 39 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -37,538 to 17,857 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Bell $26,174 cash on hand; Harrigan $451,275.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    64,706 households, 194,117 dials, about 10,172 live conversations: an estimated $16,811 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $16,811 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.