How Ashley Bell wins.
Harrigan starts 16.9 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work gets Bell within 10,928 votes; a 4.0-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Davidson 1-B (Iredell County), Coddle Creek 3 (Iredell County) and Fallstown (Iredell County).
Bell gets within 10,928 votes on campaign work alone. A 4.0-point national shift finishes it.
135,292 votes.
That is half of the 270,583 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Bell stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: Harrigan +16.9 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. 25% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. Ticket splitters and the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 28,565 leaning Harrigan today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Bell needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Harrigan.
Who. At least 34,539 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Bell's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Bell's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 34,677 net votes against a gap of 45,604. Still 10,927 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 4 points that no campaign controls.
12 precincts carry 16% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+828Davidson 1-B (Iredell County)persuadeStarting line Harrigan +35. 14.1% split their ticket.
- 02+588Coddle Creek 3 (Iredell County)persuadeStarting line Harrigan +19. 10.9% split their ticket.
- 03+525Fallstown (Iredell County)persuadeStarting line Harrigan +39. 10.1% split their ticket.
- 04+476Westport (Lincoln County)persuadeStarting line Harrigan +31. 13.2% split their ticket.
- 05+448Davidson 2-B (Iredell County)persuadeStarting line Harrigan +21. 11.7% split their ticket.
- 06+384Coddle Creek 1 (Iredell County)persuadeStarting line Harrigan +23. 11.2% split their ticket.
- 07+379Sims Recreation Center (Forsyth County)mobilizeStarting line Bell +88. 1.6% split their ticket. About 1,156 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 08+374Davidson #1a (Iredell County)persuadeStarting line Harrigan +35. 12.3% split their ticket.
- 09+372Davidson 2-A (Iredell County)persuadeStarting line Harrigan +30. 12.1% split their ticket.
- 10+372Lowesville (Lincoln County)persuadeStarting line Harrigan +24. 13.0% split their ticket.
- 11+359Arts Council Theater (Forsyth County)mobilizeStarting line Bell +41. 12.0% split their ticket. About 1,385 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+341First Alliance Church (Forsyth County)persuadeStarting line Bell +32. 7.1% split their ticket. About 1,305 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
The hidden path.
Davidson 1-B (Iredell County) carries the most.
Davidson 1-B (Iredell County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 828. It sits at Harrigan +35 on our starting line, and 14.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Sims Recreation Center (Forsyth County) is a turnout race.
Bell's side leads Sims Recreation Center (Forsyth County) by about 88 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,156 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 347 votes there.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Harrigan had $451K in cash on hand to Bell's $26K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Bell's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 187
- Slope
- 0.961
- R²
- 0.998
- Residual SD
- 1.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 39
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Bell's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 15.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Bell, with Harrigan, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 10 to 14Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 28,565 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 15 to 24Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 25 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 34,539 of them live where Bell is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 17.7 points; Stein carried the 2024 governor's race by 2.1 points; Budd carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 19.2 points.
- Bell wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Harrigan.
- In Sims Recreation Center (Forsyth County) and Arts Council Theater (Forsyth County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- The national environment moves about 4.0 points toward Bell's side between now and November 3.
- The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
10,172 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 194,117 dials to 64,706 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $16,811 at our published rates: 64,706 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Ashley Bell (D)
A Triad physician assistant and educator, she holds a bachelor's degree from the University of Houston (2003), a graduate degree from the Wake Forest University School of Medicine (2011) and a 2019 Doctor of Medical Science from the University of Lynchburg.
Cash on hand $26,174 and $84,024 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Pat Harrigan (R)
U.S. representative for the 10th District since 2025, he is a 2009 West Point graduate in nuclear engineering who served as an Army infantry officer and Special Forces officer with two Afghanistan deployments, earning two Bronze Star Medals. He later co-owned manufacturing businesses including ZRODelta.
Cash on hand $451,275 and $1,081,821 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Steven Feldman (L)
A Winston-Salem dermatologist, dermatopathologist and medical researcher on the faculty of the Wake Forest University School of Medicine, he earned a bachelor's degree from the University of Chicago (1980) and an M.D. and Ph.D. from Duke University (1985).
Cash on hand $1,342 and $36,857 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Harrigan +16.9. Ashley Bell needs 45,604 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 25% with the plan.
Questions
Can Ashley Bell win North Carolina's 10th Congressional District in 2026?
Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 34,677 net votes; the gap is 45,604. The rest would take a 4.0-point national shift.
Where are the votes Ashley Bell needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Davidson 1-B (Iredell County), Coddle Creek 3 (Iredell County), Fallstown (Iredell County), Westport (Lincoln County), Davidson 2-B (Iredell County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Ashley Bell need to persuade?
About 14,282 voters who lean Pat Harrigan today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 28,565 persuadable voters leaning Pat Harrigan.
When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?
One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- North Carolina State Board of Elections, election results
- North Carolina General Assembly, 2025 congressional plan (S.L. 2025-95)
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: Ragnar Research Partners (2026-03-10 to 2026-03-12)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: North Carolina's 10th congressional district
- Wikipedia: Pat Harrigan
- Ballotpedia: North Carolina's 10th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Pat Harrigan
- Ballotpedia: Ashley Bell (North Carolina)
- Ballotpedia: Steven Feldman (North Carolina)