Upset Brief · NC-11 · Jamie Ager (D) vs. Jennifer Balkcom (R)

Ager can win. The math closes using 94 percent of what history allows.

23%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
16,587
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 15
Where
  1. 01
    Tc Roberson High School (Buncombe County)
    Starting line Ager +39. 9.1% split their ticket. About 1,118 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +301
  2. 02
    Cullowhee (Jackson County)
    Starting line Ager +27. 7.5% split their ticket. About 2,196 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +283
  3. 03
    Lower Hominy 1 - Oak Forest Presbyterian (Buncombe County)
    Starting line Ager +21. 7.2% split their ticket. About 1,403 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +233
  4. 04
    Lutheran Church of the Nativity (Buncombe County)
    Starting line Ager +23. 9.6% split their ticket. About 1,228 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +196
  5. 05
    New Hope Presbyterian (Buncombe County)
    Starting line Ager +49. 7.8% split their ticket. About 612 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +191
  6. 06
    Woodland Hills - Baptist Church (Buncombe County)
    Starting line Ager +29. 7.4% split their ticket. About 881 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +188

The top 12 precincts carry 14% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    13,642 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Balkcom today.
    +12,760
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 29,895 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ager's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,674
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ager's way.
    +982
What has to be true
  1. Ager wins 47 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Balkcom.
  2. In Cullowhee (Jackson County) and Murphy-Oakley Community Center (Buncombe County), 33 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 94 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    292 precincts, R² 0.997, 48 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -37,320 to 38,932 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Ager $2,184,778 cash on hand; Balkcom n/a.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    36,899 households, 110,696 dials, about 5,800 live conversations: an estimated $11,420 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $11,420 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.