North Carolina · U.S. House · District 11 · November 3, 2026

How Jamie Ager wins.

Balkcom starts 5.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Ager needs 16,587 net votes, and the math closes using 94 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Tc Roberson High School (Buncombe County), Cullowhee (Jackson County) and Lower Hominy 1 - Oak Forest Presbyterian (Buncombe County).

16,587

net votes between Ager and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 15.

5.1 pts

Balkcom lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Ager can win. The math closes using 94 percent of what history allows.

Odds today23%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find16,587

WhereTc Roberson High School (Buncombe County), Cullowhee (Jackson County), Lower Hominy 1 - Oak Forest Presbyterian (Buncombe County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Balkcom +5.1. Jamie Ager needs 16,587 net votes. Odds 23% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

162,021 votes.

That is half of the 324,041 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Ager stands today, and what is missing:

150,613 Jamie Ager baseline

167,200 Jennifer Balkcom baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Governor in 2024, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

23% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Ager wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

23%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves94%

The plan on this page sits at 94%. Median outcome at this setting: Ager by 1,244.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

13K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,642

Who. 13,642 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Balkcom today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Ager needs to win 47 percent of the ones now leaning Balkcom.

Mobilize

3,674

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 29,895

Who. At least 29,895 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ager's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

982

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,001

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ager's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 17,416 net votes against a gap of 16,587. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 14% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Tc Roberson High School (Buncombe County)mobilize
Starting line Ager +39. 9.1% split their ticket. About 1,118 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+301
02
Cullowhee (Jackson County)mobilize
Starting line Ager +27. 7.5% split their ticket. About 2,196 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+283
03
Lower Hominy 1 - Oak Forest Presbyterian (Buncombe County)persuade
Starting line Ager +21. 7.2% split their ticket. About 1,403 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+233
04
Lutheran Church of the Nativity (Buncombe County)persuade
Starting line Ager +23. 9.6% split their ticket. About 1,228 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+196
05
New Hope Presbyterian (Buncombe County)mobilize
Starting line Ager +49. 7.8% split their ticket. About 612 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+191
06
Woodland Hills - Baptist Church (Buncombe County)persuade
Starting line Ager +29. 7.4% split their ticket. About 881 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+188
07
Murphy-Oakley Community Center (Buncombe County)mobilize
Starting line Ager +58. 5.1% split their ticket. About 842 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+177
08
Shiloh Community Center (Buncombe County)mobilize
Starting line Ager +60. 5.7% split their ticket. About 604 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+171
09
Woodfin Community Center (Buncombe County)mobilize
Starting line Ager +43. 7.0% split their ticket. About 664 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+169
10
Ssw_snd (Jackson County)persuade
Starting line Ager +1. 9.1% split their ticket.
+161
11
Montford Community Center (Buncombe County)mobilize
Starting line Ager +86. 2.2% split their ticket. About 511 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+161
12
Ivy Hill (Haywood County)persuade
Starting line Balkcom +16. 11.0% split their ticket.
+147

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Tc Roberson High School (Buncombe County) carries the most.

Tc Roberson High School (Buncombe County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 301. It sits at Ager +39 on our starting line, and 9.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Cullowhee (Jackson County) is a turnout race.

Ager's side leads Cullowhee (Jackson County) by about 27 points on our starting line, and it cast about 2,196 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 183 votes there.

Ivy Hill (Haywood County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Ivy Hill (Haywood County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 11.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Ager's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 292
Slope: 0.974
R²: 0.997
Residual SD: 2.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 48

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Ager's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 15.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Ager, with Balkcom, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 14
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 12,760 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 15 to 24
Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 29,895 of them live where Ager is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 9.5 points; Stein carried the 2024 governor's race by 7.5 points; Budd carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 8.8 points.

Ager wins 47 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Balkcom.
In Cullowhee (Jackson County) and Murphy-Oakley Community Center (Buncombe County), 33 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 94 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one is sponsored by one side), so it is a weighted blend of official recent results; an independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

5,800 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 110,696 dials to 36,899 households, before the last ballot is cast.

37K

households on the target list

111K

dials across three attempts

5,800

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $11,420 at our published rates: 36,899 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Jamie Ager (D)

A Fairview farmer whose family has worked the land there for generations and co-founder of Hickory Nut Gap, a sustainable meat company that employs about 25 people and partners with regional farms, he graduated from A.C. Reynolds High School and Warren Wilson College with degrees in environmental studies and history.

Cash on hand $2,184,778 and $3,052,354 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Jennifer Balkcom (R)

North Carolina House member for the 117th District (Henderson County) since 2023, she is a Henderson County native and mortgage loan officer who has worked in the financial industry since 1998 and holds an associate degree from Blue Ridge Community College.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Travis Groo (L)

A safety specialist for Old Dominion Freight Line, he is president of Better Ballot North Carolina, which advocates ranked-choice voting, and a former executive committee member of the Wake County Libertarian Party.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Balkcom +5.1. Jamie Ager needs 16,587 net votes. Odds 23% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Jamie Ager win North Carolina's 11th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Jamie Ager needs 16,587 net votes, and recent North Carolina results show about 18,620 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 94 percent of that.

Where are the votes Jamie Ager needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Tc Roberson High School (Buncombe County), Cullowhee (Jackson County), Lower Hominy 1 - Oak Forest Presbyterian (Buncombe County), Lutheran Church of the Nativity (Buncombe County), New Hope Presbyterian (Buncombe County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Jamie Ager need to persuade?

About 6,380 voters who lean Jennifer Balkcom today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 47 percent of the 13,642 persuadable voters leaning Jennifer Balkcom.

When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?

One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.