A long shot on the math: it takes a 6.6-point national wave.

1. 01
   Flowers Plantation (Johnston County)

   Starting line Knott +3. 10.3% split their ticket.
   +400
2. 02
   Precinct 14-02 (Wake County)

   Starting line Knott +11. 12.9% split their ticket.
   +350
3. 03
   Precinct 12-01 (Wake County)

   Starting line Knott +4. 12.8% split their ticket.
   +310
4. 04
   Precinct 12-09 (Wake County)

   Starting line Knott +2. 12.8% split their ticket.
   +249
5. 05
   Barbecue (Harnett County)

   Starting line Knott +14. 8.4% split their ticket.
   +243
6. 06
   Precinct 18-02 (Wake County)

   Starting line Barringer +3. 12.3% split their ticket.
   +238

The top 12 precincts carry 20% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  14,175 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Knott today.
  +14,175
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 10,415 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Barringer's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +651
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Barringer's way.
  +837

Plus a national shift of 6.6 points of margin (18,257 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Barringer wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Knott.
2. The national environment moves about 6.6 points toward Barringer's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  138 precincts, R² 0.995, 17 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -50,817 to 14,506 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Barringer $514,555 cash on hand; Knott $707,795.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  28,398 households, 85,195 dials, about 4,464 live conversations: an estimated $9,496 at published rates.