North Carolina · U.S. House · District 13 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Paul Barringer.

Knott starts 12.3 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 15,663 net votes toward Barringer, a 5.7-point gain. Winning outright would take a 6.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Barringer the one standing if one comes.

33,921

net votes between Barringer and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 15.

12.3 pts

Knott lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 6.6-point national wave.

Odds today4%

Odds with the plan18%

Net votes to find33,921

WhereFlowers Plantation (Johnston County), Precinct 14-02 (Wake County), Precinct 12-01 (Wake County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Knott +12.3. Paul Barringer needs 33,921 net votes. Odds 4% today, 18% with the plan.

The number

137,596 votes.

That is half of the 275,191 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Barringer stands today, and what is missing:

117,928 Paul Barringer baseline

151,849 Brad Knott baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Governor in 2024, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

4% today. 18% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Barringer wins in

18%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Barringer short by 18,454.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

14K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14,175

Who. 14,175 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Knott today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Barringer needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Knott.

Mobilize

651

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 10,415

Who. At least 10,415 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Barringer's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

837

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,392

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Barringer's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 15,663 net votes against a gap of 33,921. Still 18,258 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 6.6 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 20% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Flowers Plantation (Johnston County)persuade
Starting line Knott +3. 10.3% split their ticket.
+400
02
Precinct 14-02 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Knott +11. 12.9% split their ticket.
+350
03
Precinct 12-01 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Knott +4. 12.8% split their ticket.
+310
04
Precinct 12-09 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Knott +2. 12.8% split their ticket.
+249
05
Barbecue (Harnett County)persuade
Starting line Knott +14. 8.4% split their ticket.
+243
06
Precinct 18-02 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Barringer +3. 12.3% split their ticket.
+238
07
Black River (Harnett County)persuade
Starting line Knott +18. 11.0% split their ticket.
+232
08
Precinct 12-10 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Barringer +12. 11.9% split their ticket.
+228
09
Archers Lodge (Johnston County)persuade
Starting line Knott +14. 11.6% split their ticket.
+225
10
Precinct 12-04 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Knott +13. 11.8% split their ticket.
+222
11
Precinct 15-02 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Barringer +8. 10.6% split their ticket.
+219
12
Southwest Cleveland (Johnston County)persuade
Starting line Knott +6. 10.6% split their ticket.
+218

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Flowers Plantation (Johnston County) carries the most.

Flowers Plantation (Johnston County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 400. It sits at Knott +3 on our starting line, and 10.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 14-02 (Wake County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 14-02 (Wake County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 12.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The money is close.

As of June 30, 2026, Knott had $708K in cash on hand to Barringer's $515K. A race this close on money is decided on voter contact.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 15,663 net votes. The gap is 33,921. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 5.7 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Barringer's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 138
Slope: 0.951
R²: 0.995
Residual SD: 1.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 17

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Barringer's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 15.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Barringer, with Knott, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 14
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 14,175 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 15 to 24
Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 10,415 of them live where Barringer is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 16.5 points; Stein carried the 2024 governor's race by 4.0 points; Budd carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 17.0 points.

Barringer wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Knott.
The national environment moves about 6.6 points toward Barringer's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

4,464 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 85,195 dials to 28,398 households, before the last ballot is cast.

28K

households on the target list

85K

dials across three attempts

4,464

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,496 at our published rates: 28,398 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Paul Barringer (D)

A Lee County attorney and health care consultant who has managed his family's tree farm and developed the clothing brand Mill & Mountain, he holds a bachelor's degree from Davidson College, a law degree from the University of North Carolina and a master's in public affairs from Princeton University.

Cash on hand $514,555 and $1,022,610 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Brad Knott (R)

U.S. representative for the 13th District since 2025, he was a federal prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of North Carolina from 2016 to 2023. A Raleigh native, he holds a bachelor's degree from Baylor University and a J.D. from Wake Forest University School of Law.

Cash on hand $707,795 and $1,339,161 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Steven Swinton (L)

A Sanford businessman and the Libertarian nominee for North Carolina Senate District 19 in 2024.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Knott +12.3. Paul Barringer needs 33,921 net votes. Odds 4% today, 18% with the plan.

Questions

Can Paul Barringer win North Carolina's 13th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 15,663 net votes; the gap is 33,921. The rest would take a 6.6-point national shift.

Where are the votes Paul Barringer needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Flowers Plantation (Johnston County), Precinct 14-02 (Wake County), Precinct 12-01 (Wake County), Precinct 12-09 (Wake County), Barbecue (Harnett County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Paul Barringer need to persuade?

About 7,088 voters who lean Brad Knott today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 14,175 persuadable voters leaning Brad Knott.

When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?

One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.