Upset Brief · NC-14 · LaKesha Womack (D) vs. Tim Moore (R), incumbent

Womack can win. The math closes using 75 percent of what history allows.

4%
odds today
53%
odds with the plan
23,891
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 15
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 148 (Mecklenburg County)
    Starting line Womack +28. 9.5% split their ticket. About 3,103 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +928
  2. 02
    Precinct 206 (Mecklenburg County)
    Starting line Womack +42. 9.4% split their ticket. About 1,859 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +740
  3. 03
    Precinct 202 (Mecklenburg County)
    Starting line Womack +10. 11.4% split their ticket.
    +645
  4. 04
    Precinct 230 (Mecklenburg County)
    Starting line Womack +50. 5.4% split their ticket. About 3,436 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +603
  5. 05
    Precinct 229 (Mecklenburg County)
    Starting line Womack +33. 7.6% split their ticket. About 5,135 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +597
  6. 06
    Precinct 243 (Mecklenburg County)
    Starting line Womack +42. 6.9% split their ticket. About 3,525 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +520

The top 12 precincts carry 27% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 28,237 leaning Moore today.
    +21,169
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 44,840 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Womack's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,326
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Womack's way.
    +590
What has to be true
  1. Womack wins 37 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Moore.
  2. In Precinct 230 (Mecklenburg County) and Precinct 229 (Mecklenburg County), 26 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 75 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    148 precincts, R² 0.998, 27 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -22,940 to 26,506 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Womack -$376 cash on hand; Moore $1,581,992.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    48,812 households, 146,435 dials, about 7,673 live conversations: an estimated $13,892 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $13,892 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.