North Carolina · U.S. House · District 14 · November 3, 2026

How LaKesha Womack wins.

Moore starts 9.1 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Womack needs 23,891 net votes, and the math closes using 75 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Precinct 148 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 206 (Mecklenburg County) and Precinct 202 (Mecklenburg County).

23,891

net votes between Womack and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 15.

9.1 pts

Moore lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Womack can win. The math closes using 75 percent of what history allows.

Odds today4%

Odds with the plan53%

Net votes to find23,891

WherePrecinct 148 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 206 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 202 (Mecklenburg County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Moore +9.1. LaKesha Womack needs 23,891 net votes. Odds 4% today, 53% with the plan.

The number

131,400 votes.

That is half of the 262,799 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Womack stands today, and what is missing:

117,054 LaKesha Womack baseline

140,945 Tim Moore baseline

Starting line: Moore +9.1 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

4% today. 53% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Womack wins in

53%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves75%

The plan on this page sits at 75%. Median outcome at this setting: Womack by 1,155.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

21K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 28,237

Who. Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 28,237 leaning Moore today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Womack needs to win 37 percent of the ones now leaning Moore.

Mobilize

3,326

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 44,840

Who. At least 44,840 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Womack's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

590

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,250

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Womack's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 25,085 net votes against a gap of 23,891. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 27% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 148 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Womack +28. 9.5% split their ticket. About 3,103 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+928
02
Precinct 206 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Womack +42. 9.4% split their ticket. About 1,859 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+740
03
Precinct 202 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Womack +10. 11.4% split their ticket.
+645
04
Precinct 230 (Mecklenburg County)mobilize
Starting line Womack +50. 5.4% split their ticket. About 3,436 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+603
05
Precinct 229 (Mecklenburg County)mobilize
Starting line Womack +33. 7.6% split their ticket. About 5,135 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+597
06
Precinct 243 (Mecklenburg County)mobilize
Starting line Womack +42. 6.9% split their ticket. About 3,525 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+520
07
Precinct 142 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Womack +4. 11.5% split their ticket.
+479
08
Precinct 127 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Womack +16. 12.6% split their ticket.
+479
09
Precinct 208 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Moore +12. 15.2% split their ticket.
+440
10
Precinct 240 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line even. 12.4% split their ticket.
+439
11
Precinct 134 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Womack +20. 9.6% split their ticket.
+426
12
Precinct 143 (Mecklenburg County)persuade
Starting line Womack +10. 11.6% split their ticket.
+423

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 148 (Mecklenburg County) carries the most.

Precinct 148 (Mecklenburg County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 928. It sits at Womack +28 on our starting line, and 9.5 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 230 (Mecklenburg County) is a turnout race.

Womack's side leads Precinct 230 (Mecklenburg County) by about 50 points on our starting line, and it cast about 3,436 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 578 votes there.

Precinct 208 (Mecklenburg County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 208 (Mecklenburg County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 15.2 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Moore had $1.58 million in cash on hand to Womack's $-376. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Womack's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 148
Slope: 0.979
R²: 0.998
Residual SD: 1.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 27

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Womack's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 15.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Womack, with Moore, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 14
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 21,169 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 15 to 24
Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 44,840 of them live where Womack is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 15.0 points; Stein carried the 2024 governor's race by 3.9 points; Budd carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 16.0 points.

Womack wins 37 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Moore.
In Precinct 230 (Mecklenburg County) and Precinct 229 (Mecklenburg County), 26 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 75 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

7,673 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 146,435 dials to 48,812 households, before the last ballot is cast.

49K

households on the target list

146K

dials across three attempts

7,673

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $13,892 at our published rates: 48,812 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

LaKesha Womack (D)

Chief strategy officer of ASPIRE Community Capital, an emerging community development financial institution, and owner of Womack Consulting Group, she has more than two decades of experience advising small businesses, nonprofits and faith-based organizations and also serves as a minister.

Cash on hand -$376 and $24,888 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Tim Moore (R)

U.S. representative for the 14th District since 2025, he was speaker of the North Carolina House from 2015 to 2025 and represented House District 111, based in Cleveland County, from 2003 to 2025. A Kings Mountain attorney, he holds a B.A. from UNC-Chapel Hill and a law degree from Oklahoma City University.

Cash on hand $1,581,992 and $1,538,952 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Moore +9.1. LaKesha Womack needs 23,891 net votes. Odds 4% today, 53% with the plan.

Questions

Can LaKesha Womack win North Carolina's 14th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. LaKesha Womack needs 23,891 net votes, and recent North Carolina results show about 33,461 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 75 percent of that.

Where are the votes LaKesha Womack needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 148 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 206 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 202 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 230 (Mecklenburg County), Precinct 229 (Mecklenburg County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does LaKesha Womack need to persuade?

About 10,584 voters who lean Tim Moore today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 37 percent of the 28,237 persuadable voters leaning Tim Moore.

When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?

One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.