A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.0-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 19-19 (Wake County)

   Starting line Ross +4. 12.8% split their ticket.
   +321
2. 02
   Precinct 02-02 (Wake County)

   Starting line Ross +6. 12.7% split their ticket.
   +297
3. 03
   Precinct 13-10 (Wake County)

   Starting line Ross +26. 12.4% split their ticket.
   +263
4. 04
   Precinct 01-11 (Wake County)

   Starting line Ross +10. 23.1% split their ticket.
   +238
5. 05
   Precinct 05-06 (Wake County)

   Starting line Ross +33. 12.0% split their ticket.
   +220
6. 06
   Precinct 07-06 (Wake County)

   Starting line Ross +26. 14.2% split their ticket.
   +204

The top 12 precincts carry 18% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  13,742 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Ross today.
  +13,742
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 348 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Douglass's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +26
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Douglass's way.
  +674

Plus a national shift of 32 points of margin (91,969 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Douglass wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Ross.
2. The national environment moves about 32.0 points toward Douglass's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  155 precincts, R² 0.996, 24 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -125,568 to -57,857 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Douglass no FEC totals reported; Ross $1,337,687.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  20,532 households, 61,595 dials, about 3,228 live conversations: an estimated $7,120 at published rates.