North Carolina · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Eugene Douglass.

Ross starts 37.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 14,442 net votes toward Douglass, a 5.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 32.0-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Douglass the one standing if one comes.

106,410

net votes between Douglass and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 15.

37.0 pts

Ross lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 32.0-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find106,410

WherePrecinct 19-19 (Wake County), Precinct 02-02 (Wake County), Precinct 13-10 (Wake County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Ross +37.0. Eugene Douglass needs 106,410 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

143,586 votes.

That is half of the 287,171 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Douglass stands today, and what is missing:

87,266 Eugene Douglass baseline

193,676 Deborah Ross baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Governor in 2024, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Douglass wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Douglass short by 92,060.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

14K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,742

Who. 13,742 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Ross today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Douglass needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Ross.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 348

Who. At least 348 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Douglass's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

674

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,924

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Douglass's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 14,442 net votes against a gap of 106,410. Still 91,968 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 32 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 18% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 19-19 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +4. 12.8% split their ticket.
+321
02
Precinct 02-02 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +6. 12.7% split their ticket.
+297
03
Precinct 13-10 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +26. 12.4% split their ticket.
+263
04
Precinct 01-11 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +10. 23.1% split their ticket.
+238
05
Precinct 05-06 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +33. 12.0% split their ticket.
+220
06
Precinct 07-06 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +26. 14.2% split their ticket.
+204
07
Precinct 08-08 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +25. 12.0% split their ticket.
+196
08
Precinct 18-04 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +11. 11.8% split their ticket.
+192
09
Precinct 01-29 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +23. 19.5% split their ticket.
+184
10
Precinct 08-03 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +35. 10.1% split their ticket.
+177
11
Precinct 08-02 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +32. 11.5% split their ticket.
+175
12
Precinct 11-01 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Ross +39. 10.7% split their ticket.
+173

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 19-19 (Wake County) carries the most.

Precinct 19-19 (Wake County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 321. It sits at Ross +4 on our starting line, and 12.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 01-11 (Wake County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 01-11 (Wake County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 23.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 14,442 net votes. The gap is 106,410. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 5.0 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Douglass's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 155
Slope: 0.966
R²: 0.996
Residual SD: 1.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 24

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Douglass's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 15.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Douglass, with Ross, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 14
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 13,742 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 15 to 24
Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 348 of them live where Douglass is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 33.7 points; Stein carried the 2024 governor's race by 52.4 points; Beasley carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 35.4 points.

Douglass wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Ross.
The national environment moves about 32.0 points toward Douglass's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

3,228 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 61,595 dials to 20,532 households, before the last ballot is cast.

21K

households on the target list

62K

dials across three attempts

3,228

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,120 at our published rates: 20,532 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Eugene Douglass (R)

A retired chemistry professor who taught college chemistry for more than 30 years, including at UNC Pembroke from 2005, he holds a PhD from North Carolina State University and degrees from The King's College and the University of Connecticut.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Deborah Ross (D)

U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2021, she served in the North Carolina House from 2003 to 2013 and earlier was state director of the ACLU of North Carolina. A lawyer, she holds a BA from Brown University and a JD from the UNC School of Law.

Cash on hand $1,337,687 and $1,675,978 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Matthew Laszacs (L)

A business executive with 20 years of experience leading teams, he has lived in North Carolina since 2001 and holds a bachelor's degree in business administration from North Carolina Wesleyan College.

Campaign site ›

Also on the ballot

Brian McGinnis (I)

A U.S. Marine Corps veteran (2000 to 2004) and firefighter, he earned an associate degree from John Wood Community College in 2006.

Cash on hand -$13,363 and $68,363 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Ross +37.0. Eugene Douglass needs 106,410 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Eugene Douglass win North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 14,442 net votes; the gap is 106,410. The rest would take a 32.0-point national shift.

Where are the votes Eugene Douglass needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 19-19 (Wake County), Precinct 02-02 (Wake County), Precinct 13-10 (Wake County), Precinct 01-11 (Wake County), Precinct 05-06 (Wake County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Eugene Douglass need to persuade?

About 6,871 voters who lean Deborah Ross today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 13,742 persuadable voters leaning Deborah Ross.

When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?

One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.