Smith can win. The math closes using 26 percent of what history allows.

1. 01
   Taylors (Wilson County)

   Starting line Smith +2. 10.4% split their ticket.
   +442
2. 02
   Sneads Ferry (Onslow County)

   Starting line Murphy +41. 11.3% split their ticket.
   +375
3. 03
   Chicod (Pitt County)

   Starting line Murphy +39. 10.5% split their ticket.
   +368
4. 04
   Greenville 11A (Pitt County)

   Starting line even. 15.4% split their ticket.
   +357
5. 05
   Folkstone (Onslow County)

   Starting line Murphy +39. 11.7% split their ticket.
   +336
6. 06
   West Northwoods (Onslow County)

   Starting line Murphy +17. 10.8% split their ticket.
   +315

The top 12 precincts carry 47% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  Ticket splitters and the 15 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 25,120 leaning Murphy today.
  +6,522
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 36,604 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Smith's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +1,351
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Smith's way.
  +161

1. Smith wins 13 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Murphy.
2. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 26 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
3. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  193 precincts, R² 0.998, 38 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -18,065 to 18,583 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Smith $73,711 cash on hand; Murphy $2,697,820.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  12,452 households, 37,356 dials, about 1,957 live conversations: an estimated $5,556 at published rates.