North Carolina · U.S. House · District 3 · November 3, 2026

How Raymond Smith Jr. wins.

Murphy starts 3.5 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Smith needs 7,652 net votes, and the math closes using 26 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Taylors (Wilson County), Sneads Ferry (Onslow County) and Chicod (Pitt County).

7,652

net votes between Smith and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 15.

3.5 pts

Murphy lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

Smith can win. The math closes using 26 percent of what history allows.

Odds today24%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find7,652

WhereTaylors (Wilson County), Sneads Ferry (Onslow County), Chicod (Pitt County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Murphy +3.5. Raymond Smith Jr. needs 7,652 net votes. Odds 24% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

108,365 votes.

That is half of the 216,729 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Smith stands today, and what is missing:

102,691 Raymond Smith Jr. baseline

110,343 Greg Murphy baseline

Starting line: Murphy +3.5 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each precinct's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

24% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Smith wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

24%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves26%

The plan on this page sits at 26%. Median outcome at this setting: Smith by 278.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

6,522

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 25,120

Who. Ticket splitters and the 15 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 25,120 leaning Murphy today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Smith needs to win 13 percent of the ones now leaning Murphy.

Mobilize

1,351

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 36,604

Who. At least 36,604 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Smith's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

161

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,772

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Smith's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 8,034 net votes against a gap of 7,652. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 47% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Taylors (Wilson County)persuade
Starting line Smith +2. 10.4% split their ticket.
+442
02
Sneads Ferry (Onslow County)persuade
Starting line Murphy +41. 11.3% split their ticket.
+375
03
Chicod (Pitt County)persuade
Starting line Murphy +39. 10.5% split their ticket.
+368
04
Greenville 11A (Pitt County)persuade
Starting line even. 15.4% split their ticket.
+357
05
Folkstone (Onslow County)persuade
Starting line Murphy +39. 11.7% split their ticket.
+336
06
West Northwoods (Onslow County)persuade
Starting line Murphy +17. 10.8% split their ticket.
+315
07
Bear Creek (Onslow County)persuade
Starting line Murphy +37. 13.3% split their ticket.
+300
08
Oldfields (Wilson County)persuade
Starting line Murphy +35. 10.6% split their ticket.
+277
09
Cross Roads (Onslow County)persuade
Starting line Murphy +33. 10.8% split their ticket.
+263
10
Simpson A (Pitt County)persuade
Starting line Smith +1. 11.4% split their ticket.
+258
11
Greenvile 13A (Pitt County)persuade
Starting line Smith +7. 11.1% split their ticket.
+247
12
Precinct 14 (Wayne County)persuade
Starting line Murphy +30. 10.6% split their ticket.
+247

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Taylors (Wilson County) carries the most.

Taylors (Wilson County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 442. It sits at Smith +2 on our starting line, and 10.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Greenville 11A (Pitt County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Greenville 11A (Pitt County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 15.4 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Murphy had $2.70 million in cash on hand to Smith's $74K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Smith's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 193
Slope: 0.957
R²: 0.998
Residual SD: 1.7 pts
Crossover precincts: 38

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Smith's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 15.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Smith, with Murphy, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 14
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 6,522 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 15 to 24
Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 36,604 of them live where Smith is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 13.6 points; Stein carried the 2024 governor's race by 2.8 points; Budd carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 15.2 points.

Smith wins 13 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Murphy.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 26 percent of what recent North Carolina results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

1,957 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 37,356 dials to 12,452 households, before the last ballot is cast.

12K

households on the target list

37K

dials across three attempts

1,957

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,556 at our published rates: 12,452 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Raymond Smith Jr. (D)

A Goldsboro native and U.S. Army veteran of the Persian Gulf War, he served in the North Carolina House for the 21st District from 2019 to 2023 and on the Wayne County Board of Education. He holds degrees from North Carolina A&T, North Carolina Central University (MPA) and Fayetteville State University (EdD).

Cash on hand $73,711 and $223,119 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Greg Murphy (R)

U.S. representative for the 3rd District since 2019 and a member of the North Carolina House from 2015 to 2019, he is a Greenville urologist who served as chief of staff of Vidant Medical Center. He holds a BS from Davidson College and an MD from UNC Chapel Hill.

Cash on hand $2,697,820 and $2,357,956 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Daniel Cavender (L)

A Lexington native who served in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve from 2015 to 2022, he works as a fire protection equipment technician and earned a bachelor's degree from UNC Greensboro in 2021.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Murphy +3.5. Raymond Smith Jr. needs 7,652 net votes. Odds 24% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Raymond Smith Jr. win North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Raymond Smith Jr. needs 7,652 net votes, and recent North Carolina results show about 30,945 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 26 percent of that.

Where are the votes Raymond Smith Jr. needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Taylors (Wilson County), Sneads Ferry (Onslow County), Chicod (Pitt County), Greenville 11A (Pitt County), Folkstone (Onslow County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Raymond Smith Jr. need to persuade?

About 3,261 voters who lean Greg Murphy today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 13 percent of the 25,120 persuadable voters leaning Greg Murphy.

When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?

One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.