A long shot on the math: it takes a 44.8-point national wave.

1. 01
   Precinct 06-12 (Wake County)

   Starting line Foushee +11. 12.4% split their ticket.
   +300
2. 02
   Precinct 06-06 (Wake County)

   Starting line Foushee +19. 12.9% split their ticket.
   +293
3. 03
   Precinct 18-05 (Wake County)

   Starting line Foushee +23. 11.7% split their ticket.
   +238
4. 04
   Precinct 20-14 (Wake County)

   Starting line Foushee +36. 9.9% split their ticket.
   +234
5. 05
   Precinct 20-11 (Wake County)

   Starting line Foushee +26. 10.8% split their ticket.
   +222
6. 06
   Neal Middle School (Durham County)

   Starting line Foushee +28. 8.8% split their ticket.
   +213

The top 12 precincts carry 23% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  11,238 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Foushee today.
  +11,238
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 679 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ganorkar's side wins at least 55 percent.
  +40
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ganorkar's way.
  +549

Plus a national shift of 44.8 points of margin (141,149 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Ganorkar wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Foushee.
2. The national environment moves about 44.8 points toward Ganorkar's side between now and November 3.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  141 precincts, R² 0.997, 16 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -178,340 to -104,278 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Ganorkar $16,967 cash on hand; Foushee $47,788.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  17,058 households, 51,173 dials, about 2,681 live conversations: an estimated $6,763 at published rates.