North Carolina · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Mahesh Ganorkar.

Foushee starts 48.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 11,827 net votes toward Ganorkar, a 3.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 44.8-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Ganorkar the one standing if one comes.

152,975

net votes between Ganorkar and a win

days to election day. Early voting opens October 15.

48.6 pts

Foushee lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All North Carolina races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 44.8-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find152,975

WherePrecinct 06-12 (Wake County), Precinct 06-06 (Wake County), Precinct 18-05 (Wake County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Foushee +48.6. Mahesh Ganorkar needs 152,975 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

157,455 votes.

That is half of the 314,908 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Ganorkar stands today, and what is missing:

78,015 Mahesh Ganorkar baseline

230,989 Valerie Foushee baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (President, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Governor in 2024, U.S. Senate in 2022). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Ganorkar wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Ganorkar short by 141,321.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

11K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 11,238

Who. 11,238 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Foushee today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Ganorkar needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Foushee.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 679

Who. At least 679 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Ganorkar's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

549

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,567

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Ganorkar's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,827 net votes against a gap of 152,975. Still 141,148 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 44.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 23% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Precinct 06-12 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +11. 12.4% split their ticket.
+300
02
Precinct 06-06 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +19. 12.9% split their ticket.
+293
03
Precinct 18-05 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +23. 11.7% split their ticket.
+238
04
Precinct 20-14 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +36. 9.9% split their ticket.
+234
05
Precinct 20-11 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +26. 10.8% split their ticket.
+222
06
Neal Middle School (Durham County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +28. 8.8% split their ticket.
+213
07
Precinct 20-12 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +28. 10.5% split their ticket.
+211
08
Precinct 20-05 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +21. 12.7% split their ticket.
+205
09
North Williams (Chatham County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +46. 8.7% split their ticket.
+200
10
North Regional Library (Durham County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +39. 8.3% split their ticket.
+196
11
Precinct 06-10 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +9. 11.7% split their ticket.
+194
12
Precinct 05-07 (Wake County)persuade
Starting line Foushee +42. 8.5% split their ticket.
+192

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 06-12 (Wake County) carries the most.

Precinct 06-12 (Wake County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 300. It sits at Foushee +11 on our starting line, and 12.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 06-06 (Wake County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 06-06 (Wake County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 12.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Foushee had $48K in cash on hand to Ganorkar's $17K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 11,827 net votes. The gap is 152,975. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 3.8 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Ganorkar's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 141
Slope: 0.942
R²: 0.997
Residual SD: 1.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 16

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Ganorkar's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 15.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Ganorkar, with Foushee, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 10 to 14
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,238 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 15 to 24
Bank the ballots
One-stop early voting runs October 15 through October 31, with same-day registration at early voting sites. Absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 25 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 679 of them live where Ganorkar is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by the county board of elections by 7:30 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Requests must be received by October 20. North Carolina has no drop boxes.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. and photo ID is required. Registration closes October 9; same-day registration is available only during one-stop early voting. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 45.1 points; Stein carried the 2024 governor's race by 59.4 points; Beasley carried the 2022 U.S. Senate race by 48.1 points.

Ganorkar wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Foushee.
The national environment moves about 44.8 points toward Ganorkar's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,681 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 51,173 dials to 17,058 households, before the last ballot is cast.

17K

households on the target list

51K

dials across three attempts

2,681

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,763 at our published rates: 17,058 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Mahesh Ganorkar (R)

A Pittsboro home designer and builder with an MBA, he previously worked on joint ventures between U.S. and Indian companies.

Cash on hand $16,967 and $11,917 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Valerie Foushee (D)

U.S. representative for the 4th District since 2023 and the first African American and first woman to hold the seat, she served in the North Carolina Senate from 2013 to 2023 after briefly serving in the state House, and earlier on the Orange County Board of Commissioners and the Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools board. She holds a BA from UNC Chapel Hill.

Cash on hand $47,788 and $912,011 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Guy Meilleur (L)

A Durham arborist running as the Libertarian nominee.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Foushee +48.6. Mahesh Ganorkar needs 152,975 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Mahesh Ganorkar win North Carolina's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 11,827 net votes; the gap is 152,975. The rest would take a 44.8-point national shift.

Where are the votes Mahesh Ganorkar needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 06-12 (Wake County), Precinct 06-06 (Wake County), Precinct 18-05 (Wake County), Precinct 20-14 (Wake County), Precinct 20-11 (Wake County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Mahesh Ganorkar need to persuade?

About 5,619 voters who lean Valerie Foushee today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 11,238 persuadable voters leaning Valerie Foushee.

When does early voting start in North Carolina in 2026?

One-stop early voting in North Carolina runs October 15 through 3 p.m. on October 31, 2026, at any early voting site in the voter's county, with same-day registration available there. The regular registration deadline is October 9. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Photo ID is required.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official North Carolina State Board of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official North Carolina State Board of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.